We are in a very similar situation. Mine is hoping for UF, but as they say “Hope is not a plan”. I’ve seen some very strong kids who either weren’t accepted at UF or got into the PACE program. Based on stats, I think mine and yours have a good shot at getting in. Holistic admissions is what makes it unpredictable though, so it’s smart to have a solid plan B that they will be excited about. (Congrats to your son on Eagle Scout BTW; that is a big deal and would factor in too, I would think/hope.)
Mine will be applying to FSU, UCF, maybe USF, and then some out of state private schools that she really likes. The issue is, as you know, the OOS private schools, the ones she really likes anyway, will be so much more expensive. Some of them would be great fits, so the question then becomes if the fit and the experience are worth the extra $$$. Bright Futures + Prepaid will be very difficult to say no to. She has some misgivings about each of the other 3 FL schools (FSU may be too heavy on Greek life and partying for her liking, UCF is too close to home and may feel like an extension of high school since many from her HS go there, and she is just meh about USF, both the school and the area.)
Although it won’t be clear until February, we are thinking now about what will happen if PACE or summer/spring starts are the only options at UF so that we won’t have to make that a rushed decision (as someone above mentioned).
You’ve been given some good options regarding other schools to check out that could possibly give merit. Does he like U of Miami? Rollins? Embry Riddle? Bama? If you want him to stay close to home, your options are more limited; however, if you and he don’t mind being a plane ride (or much longer car ride) away, there are several options.There is a pinned thread somewhere on here for schools known for good merit. Maybe over the summer visit a few OOS schools that would be good fits (financial and otherwise) so he doesn’t have all his eggs in one basket and can get excited about multiple options.
Best of luck to him.