15 kids per year go to Ivies. And you are ranked 16th?
Keep in mind that of the 15, probably half are legacy/URM/development, etc. So to me, this means that all of the ivies might be barely out of reach. The ways to boost your chances are to apply binding ED.
While your point on hooked applicants is valid (and I would add fac brats to the mix), ranks 1-15 do not all go to the Ivy League. Some may opt for non- Ivy schools like Stanford or Duke or UVA or UMich
Yes, plenty of non-Ivy equivalents. If a school sends 15 students to the actual Ivies, it’s fair to guess that’s as many as 25-35 at Ivy OR Ivy-equivalent.
My local public school (very competitive public) is sending at least 17 kids to Ivies this year… but it’s not the top 17 students in the class. Among the top, there is also Duke, MIT, Carnegie Melon, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern.
Seems like your high school should have college counselors who have extensive historical knowledge and connections to colleges that will enable them to give you better estimates for most of the colleges on your list. They may also be able to suggest other normally-seen-as-reach-for-all colleges that may be more likely to see you as a fit from their point of view.
could be that it’s a match in relation to the school? e.g. my school has a 100% acceptance for UConn and pretty much 100% for Georgetown if your GPA is higher than 3.8, etc… possible that OP’s school considers it a match due to the school’s history and matriculation/acceptance rates