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<p>College admission doesn’t work like that. You either have 1 or 0 chance of getting in, ie a sum of bernoulli or binomial.</p>
<p>However, a more realistic and convenient way of thinking is that most students have 0 chance of getting in, while a small proportion have very high chances.</p>
<p>I would take student 1, but I’m not an Amherst admission officer. Student 2 is not cut out for this tier of school academically.</p>