<p>Ghostt </p>
<p>i dont want to be rude.no,but have u heard about probability?
When flipping a coin 3 times there is 1/8 chance that all heads come.</p>
<p>So do you suggest me to bet on coming heads three times (1/8 )?</p>
<p>I personally would like to bet on coming at least one head or 7/8.</p>
<p>I think you got a metaphor…</p>
<p>Zonlicht </p>
<p>Re “1 or 0” chance of admisssions. Until the result is released the applicant is very much in a Schroedinger’s Cat situation.</p>
<p>OP </p>
<p>The answer to your question is “YES”</p>
<p>The interplay between SAT and ECs, etc. at competitive schools (which claim to take a holistic approach to admissions) is incredibly complicated, differs school to school, activity to activity and can only really be addressed by an admissions committee. But in answer to your question, schools like Amherst do not admit on a straight numerical basis – strong ECs can make a difference.</p>
<p>Let me give you an example (based on what ad ops said when my D was applying). Let’s say that Student 2’s fantastic EC was being a great Tuba player (tuba-ist?). If a school knew that all of its Tuba players were graduating next year, this could be a tremendous advantage. If last year was a bumper crop where 4 all-American Tuba Players were admitted – not so much. A lot of this comes down to what they think makes the stronger class.</p>
<p>IMO, the more important factor between the two may very well be the ED vs RD factor – though I don’t know for sure how this plays out at Amherst.</p>
<p>uppppppppppppppppppppppp</p>
<p>NewHavenCTmom: If I were the elite school admissions office, I would reject him halfway through the essay if it sounds exactly like who he is. I have no basis for this claim, but in places where world-renowned people are accepted every year, I think a sense of “entitlement” is the last thing you’d want to show.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Sorry to break it for you, but there’s a difference between what’s correct and what you want to hear. You’re operating on the assumption that they’re the same thing.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>By this logic, if you post to ask “What’s 1 + 1?” the person who says 1 + 1 = 2 must be poorly educated in math because anyone can answer that question. The person who says 1 + 1 = 3 has the right answer because it’s different from the other answers. Sorry, but just because we’re saying something you don’t like and just because many of us are saying the same thing doesn’t mean we don’t know what we’re talking about and we don’t know how the process works.</p>
<p>Actually, the reason you’re seeing so much agreement on this thread is because we know how it works. The consensus here is not the consensus of the foolish masses. It’s the consensus of people who know what they’re talking about.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Well, that’s the point. We can’t tell you the probability of your acceptance. It’s not a science. There are far too many variables, especially since we can’t see the contents of the applications and we have no idea what a particular admissions office is looking for in any particular year. And our opinions are going to be different from theirs; what’s interesting to me may bore an admissions officer out of her mind.</p>
<p>Thus, my most firm answer is that we don’t know, and we can’t know.</p>
<p>However, based on a few general principles and where the level of interest of the essays and ECs is listed in the example as it is perceived by the admissions officers, I think the second student is more likely to be admitted.</p>
<p>Why? Because when admissions officers find one academically qualified applicant interesting and the other academically qualified applicant uninteresting, they’re going to be more likely to admit the interesting one. And both applicants in this scenario are academically qualified as far as their test scores (information about their grades would be useful, too).</p>
<p>But that analysis is utterly irrelevant because we’re not talking about how interesting things are as perceived by the admissions officers; we’re talking about how interesting things are from the perspective of one of the students. That’s (1) highly biased, and (2) irrelevant to how admissions officers will perceive the applicants.</p>
<p>If you appear in your application anything like you appear in this thread, though, I’d reject you. Your utter disdain for people who disagree with you, your close-mindedness, and your poor writing skills aren’t making the case for me.</p>
<p>Oh, and by the way, I really don’t appreciate hypotheticals that, like 99.9% of hypotheticals on CC, are obviously not actually hypothetical. Especially when the OP reveals only a few posts down that, oh yeah, it wasn’t really hypothetical. If it’s about you, own up to it. Understanding sources of bias is important, as is confidence.</p>
<p>The most important is not my opinions or my world-view…Much more important is arguments if you state something.</p>
<p>"Much more important is arguments if you state something. "</p>
<p>Such as having the wisdom not to state something as fact when there is no basis to do so. Sheesh.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Probabilities are the result of precise mathematical equations. What you are asking for is opinions.</p></li>
<li><p>Are all admission books silly and worthless? No, but they only provide insight on a gross level, i.e., get good grades, high test scores and have intriguing ECs. They provide little useful information on how an individual applicant’s profile will be viewed at a specific school. Furthermore, the more people who read a given book and apply a given strategy the more ‘average’ those types of applications become thereby mitigating a once perceived advantage.</p></li>
<li><p>‘Mediocre’ ECs and ‘below average’ essays. Few if any applicants believe they are submitting mediocre or below average applications. These are matters of perception and can only be judged when compared to the overall pool of applicants. Furthermore, individual readers can have widely variable reactions to the same product. For example, while many will agree with NewHavenCTmom that the student she met oozed entitlement, a given admissions counselor might read the application and hear someone brimming with justifiable confidence. The arbitrary scales applied by different readers nullifies your assessment of their merits. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>In the end, both candidates are within the statistical profile for Amherst. The second candidate has an edge to the extent that Amherst ‘values’ ED applicants.</p>
<p>Thanks for valuable information vinceh.</p>
<p>@T26E4</p>
<p>So true… when I first joined CC last year, I thought that this was the norm, an accepted practice.</p>
<p>But then it hit me, how can folks who have no admissions experience chance anyone? </p>
<p>I bet there are 2400 SAT students(high GPA, amazing EC’s, etc) who have been waitlisted or rejected and if they posted a “chance me” thread, they were told that they were a shoe in! I think being told great things here on chance me threads can give a false sense of security. </p>
<p>And don’t adcoms have to size each candidate against others in the pile? So they can mold a perfect freshman class so to speak??</p>
<p>lots of other l.a.c.'s in other states that x and y could get into, have a great four years undergrad… minus all the admissions games and crazy rules at Amherst!
Hendrix, Beloit,Macalster,Muhlenberg,St Olafs and Lafayette. relax and spread your wings , to many people get fixated on the ivies or Amherst, Williams etc!!</p>