<p>"Ergo, rising prices does correlate to rising applicants, but one doesn't CAUSE the other!"</p>
<p>Oh, certainly not. But consider: almost none of the prestige colleges have increased their total number of undergrads in more than a decade. And since 1993, the number and percentage of low-income students, (i.e. Pell Grant recipients) has (with some exceptions) actually gone down. Some schools, like my alma mater, are signficantly less economically diverse than they were 25-30 years ago, even though more students receive (ah-hem) "need-based aid".</p>
<p>It is true that tuition/rb have risen. But they have not risen as quickly as the income/assets of their full-pay customers. So I would have said it is like the frog in the pot of warm water, except that, for the full-pay customers, the water is getting cooler, not hotter. It is cheaper (relatively) for full-pay customers to send their kids to these places than it was a decade ago.</p>
<p>I think the colleges recognize this, which is why they are still raising prices faster than inflation. And, at some level, at least in theory there would at least be an "inflection point" whereby applications of full-pay customers (those are the only ones that count when setting list prices) would level off. But current prices are so low, we aren't even close to the point, as evidenced by increasing applications.</p>
<p>There is no economic modelling that I know of by which this really makes any sense. By raising prices and then increasing scholarships (as Princeton has done), everyone feels like they are getting a better deal, but especially those students in the $100k-$160k range whom schools like Princeton don't want to lose to the Vanderbilts of the world. </p>
<p>"There may not have been specific economic modeling going on (or there may have been), but colleges, like any other business, have an idea of a tipping point beyond which the increased price is not justified by the purportedly increased value."</p>
<p>I would like to believe it, but I don't see any evidence for it. (Consider what is happening to applications at schools like NYU, Georgetown, and George Washington, and I think you'd come to the opposite conclusion.) There is a tipping point, I'm sure, but I think just to get college prices up to where they were relative to income/assets (for a full-pay applicant) a decade ago would require at least a $8-10k higher list price; and I expect the tipping point is well higher than that.</p>
<p>I think JHS really is closest to the truth - the reason prices are so low is basically inertia. So get the bargain price while you can!</p>