<p>Again, thanks for your detailed posts and the valuable links. The Accounting ranking link is very pertinent and places Kelley rather well. That is impressive, and more so because of the consistency over the years.</p>
<p>Now, with respect to the demand for Kelley incoming admits, I definitely see your point of view there. However, I would submit that this is a parochial point of view, from the perspective of the administrators (and the admissions group) of the school.</p>
<p>As you and others have noted, due to the overall economy, recruiting and recruiters are down at Kelley. By about 21%. That is a LOT! One reason the Finance percentages are higher is because the marketing/retail/general management jobs are down a lot, and overall recruiting is down. So ‘upper-level’ Finance is doing better, in ‘relative’ percentage terms. Is that the more important metric and long-term strategic driver for Kelley management?</p>
<p>My point is that this economy thing is not a 1-2 year phenomenon. As Bernanke and others economists have noted, unemployement (and recruiting) will not fully recover to pre-2008 levels, for many years. 3, maybe 5, or even 7 years. I am a Finance guy, a global one, and have (I believe) both a solid macro/strategic and detailed (sectoral) view of the markets. I only see modest, gradual, slow improvement in recruiting for several years.</p>
<p>So, yes you have good incoming demand for Kelley undergrads. That’s good for Kelley’s revenue base. But what about the poor students? Not just the top 25%-30%, but 90%-95% of them? Are the bottom 25%-30% potentially roadkill? </p>
<p>I believe Kelley’s probem is that Kelley starts from a huge base (supply) of 1,500 grads per year. Absorbing the Kelley huge supply in TODAY’s marketplace is THE issue. Can Kelley confidently say that Kelley will be able (through other internal recruitment marketing actions, irrepective of the economy) to bring the Kelley recruitment numbers to 2007 and prior levels next year? If not, what will happen to the poor Kelley grads in 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015…</p>
<p>Even with just 15% of Kelley undergrad supply unemployed, or not getting a job offer, even 3 months after graduation, that’s over 200 grads per year. Keep that up for a few years, and depression will set in within the batches following them. Freshmen, Sophomores will begin to hear about the unemployed Kelley grads above them, growing each year. Particularly if Kelley increases supply, by increasing either direct admits, or greater numbers of non Freshman-direct admits the problem will get worse. What then? Where will Kelley be in 3-5 years. </p>
<p>I suggest someone at Kelley should close their eyes, relax, focus, think of the recruiting world as it could exist for the next several years, and then work that vision backwards and think about today’s actions. In my opinion, the most important characteristic of management is to anticipate problems and be proactive. To do this, one has to be brave and action-oriented and not wait and react when the damage is done!</p>
<p>I humbly implore caution on the part of Kelley’s admissions’ supply pool of undergrads because I do see a cascading series of poor recruiting years, negatively impacting Freshman and Sophomore morale in 2-3 years. I honestly believe the chances are quite high that Kelley’s huge supply of undergrads will set it back in a few years and this will lead to significant internal cognitive dissonance in the rank and file. It has the risk of becoming a psychological, self-feeding feedback loop. This is largely a macro driven problem that in my view requires an adjustment response. The current base of Kelley grads will be too high for the economy to absorb for several years.</p>