<p>@blossom, I normally agree with you as your perspective on business seems fairly similar to mine and my post on major macro trends was a bit brief given what I was writing about. I found a nice article by a hedge fund economist named Samuel Rines on the contestability of jobs that I find very useful: <a href=“The Biggest Threat to U.S. Jobs: The "Contestability" Nightmare”>https://■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/today/post/article/20141030145107-57656192-the-biggest-threat-to-u-s-jobs-the-contestability-nightmare</a>. But the macro picture is as you say, not everything, but it is a lot more important than a number of posters here seem to think.</p>
<p>My post was a response to a number of the posters on this site who appear to be driving by largely looking in the rearview mirror when there is a huge boulder in the middle of the road. I am a huge fan of learning how to think and not at all a fan of getting an undergraduate business degree as a general rule, but I think many parents seem to believe (or want to believe) that the global economy is where we were ten or twenty years ago, which unfortunately will not prevent them from hitting the boulder. Strategically thoughtful action is needed. Your post also seems to give a bit too much weight to the rear view.</p>
<p>A number of folks ask me to give career advice – I have my own way of thinking about career trajectories that people find useful and I’ve been asked to give a TED talk and encouraged to write a book on the subject (unfortunately I haven’t had time for either) but did give such a talk at a prestigious business school and a couple of elite undergraduate schools. One thing I normally tell folks thinking about career trajectories to think about the big demographic, economic, technological, sociological waves that are coming and that it is vastly better to pick a good wave. Picking a bad wave – like trying to become a teacher during the baby bust as a couple of friends did – is both frustrating and for many, psychologically debilitating. One important wave is technological. Technology is not the only wave, however. This weekend, I was asked by a college student who is not at all mathy but is good at languages and I said, one wave that is not played out by any means is conflict between the West and the Arab World and I encouraged her – an American Jew who is fluent in Hebrew – to become equally fluent in Arabic. There will be continued employment for those interested in the Middle East and fluent in Arabic. That is a demonstrable skill and a contestable job. Climate change is another wave that is still early. In health care, all developed countries have aging populations, expensive by life-lengthening new technologies, and the lack of political will to pay for cost increases continuing to grow faster than the rate of inflation. Required changes in health care provision due to these trends is another big wave. There will be massive growth in demand for physician assistants and nurse practitioners to deal with cost reduction due to these trends (substituting NPs and PAs and other doc substitutes for docs whenever possible). Electricians, plumbers, and data scientists also possess demonstrable skills and will have contestable jobs. Engineers have cobweb cycles as you recognize and data scientists may also be affect by the H1-B restrictions (though the area is probably new enough that the effect will be muted), but being at the top of the game will provide great rewards. Electricians and plumbers are also buffeted by economic cycles. High-end salespeople (the folks who sell the enterprise software or big machines or specialty chemicals) will continue to be in demand. All these will require some technical skill. And real estate development is always going to be contestable. </p>
<p>I was recently asked by two sets of parents to talk to their kids who are looking for jobs in neuroscience after doing very well as undergrads and working in labs at their universities and other universities. Guess what, there are 20 kids just like them from each school and you have to give the hiring person some reason to pick you. Writing skill, maybe, but I suspect that there will be a lot of good writers in the neuroscience area as this is the one STEM area that has seen a big influx of females (who, in my stereotypical view are likely to be better writers than male neuroscience kids, though perhaps you can disabuse me of this notion). Technical skills – can you write software to connect the machine to the computer or modify a piece of software – would likely be a lot more distinguishing. So, frankly, would be parental contacts that get the kid the interview.</p>
<p>@Pizzagirl, as many middle class jobs go away, there will be more people looking for retail jobs and these will be more competitive and wages will probably be driven down. There are management positions in retail and some people will get them. My perception is that the working conditions in retail – even management – are not that great until you rise quite a ways. On the fashion side of the business, retail and fashion companies seem to be pretty exploitative with young job candidates, often female, who have always wanted to work in fashion. Lots of unpaid internships or early poorly paid jobs. But, on the fashion side, the working conditions seem to get better sooner than on the retail side. I could be wrong about this.</p>
<p>@blossom, my biggest concern with respect to your list of demonstrable skills (“strong communicators. Ability to synthesize lots of information into easily digestible bites. Ability to use charts and graphics to demonstrate a complicated concept. Ability to drive consensus”) is that in the current environment with many applicants for fewer jobs is not that they are not valuable but that they won’t come up until people get in the door – those applicants may not get past the resume screener. If that is the selling proposition, the job candidates will need a lot of advice on how to make these prominent early on – and I suspect many will not have developed those skills sufficiently yet to be selling propositions to companies that want to see immediate assistance from new hires. You are much closer to the hiring world than I – can college seniors demonstrate those skills sufficiently to get into the pool being interviewed?</p>