<p>One,</p>
<p>What the article you cite leaves out is almost as important as what it includes.</p>
<p>It states that "early in 2007, Goldman Sachs realized it had a problem and started to take steps to limit their risks"--but it doesn't say what Goldman Sachs did. Let me fill you in on that. Goldman started buying credit default swaps as insurance for the mortgage loans they felt were risky.--particularly from AIG. What they should have been doing is to stop writing such loans--but no, instead, they just attempted to transfer the risk to some unknowing other entity that was part of the local Wall Street financial group.</p>
<p>So now what was the problem in 2008 that made people concerned that Goldman Sachs might go the way of Lehmann Brothers?--it was the concern that AIG might go out of business and thus default on these credit default swaps owed to Goldman.</p>
<p>What happens next--let's look at the timeline--Our Treasury secretary at the time Paulson--who used to be CEO of Goldman before he took the Treasury Secretary position demands that AIG replace their CEO with someone who can better run the company.</p>
<p>Who do they choose--gee, what a coincidence, they choose Edward Liddy, who just coincidentally had given up his directorship at Goldman Sachs just two weeks or so earlier.</p>
<p>What happens next--less than two weeks later, right after Liddy takes over, AIG gets a total of $80 billion in new funds--bringing the total for AIG to $150 billion in total. And what do you think Liddy had AIG do when it got the bailout money. Surprise, surprise--they paid off $37 billion in credit default swaps owed to the largest banks within the first two days after receiving the money--and the vast majority of this, coincidentally, went to Goldman Sachs.</p>
<p>As pointed out in the following Bloomberg article:</p>
<p>Goldman</a>, Merrill Collect Billions After Fed's AIG Bailout Loans - Bloomberg.com</p>
<p>"An AIG bankruptcy would have forced these counterparties to stand in line with other creditors and wait for perhaps years to be paid through the courts."</p>
<p>Of course, Hank Paulson wasn't going to let his own firm get into trouble. So, excuse me when I say that thieves that steal millions aren't the biggest crooks in this business--it's the ones stealing billions that should be first in line for the jail cell. Personally, I'd put Paulson in the cell right next door to Madoff.</p>
<p>Even Jim Cramer in his discussion on Thursday with John Stewart made the statement that he thought Paulson was a crook and needed to go to jail. Somehow, the fat cats seem to be able to protect their own houses, though.</p>
<p>So, I guess what I'm saying is, yes, VaR and its creators are partly to blame--but there is also blame based upon the actions of certain insiders that is completely unrelated to the models. For example, why couldn't Goldman Sachs stop bundling their mortgage-backed securities at all, instead of still bundling them, but then insuring them with AIG.</p>
<p>Also, if the models are bad--then it is up to the people using them to understand them--and not just blindly follow something they don't understand. Otherwise, maybe they aren't such "geniuses" as they think they are.</p>
<p>And I guess I don't understand your comment--don't blame the I-bankers. Weren't the I-bankers the ones using the VaR model, and weren't they the ones bundling the mortgages and selling them off as packages--and weren't they the ones creating other derivatives--and then flooding the market with credit default swaps needed to cover the toxic securities (items the insurance companies didn't understand). Don't you think this implies at least some complicity in the whole problem?</p>