Why is Duke's yield so low?

Colleges and Universities A-Z Duke University
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<p>wow… ok I appreciate that Duke is a very good school, and that you’d like to keep on defending it, but it’s honestly quite rude to denigrate Chicago by saying it only accepts students with high stats who will get rejected from “hypsm”. I applied to Columbia, Yale and Harvard RD this year, and Chicago EA; and was accepted to Chicago, Yale and Columbia (rejected from Harvard), and will be attending Chicago in the fall. Many of my fellow students are in the same situation, and cross-admits between all these schools all have many choices. This elitist sort of thinking that schools can be separated into “tiers” honestly just perpetuates the intense anxiety and nervousness that higher schoolers and parents feel. </p>

<p>And by the way, UChicago has always had very good students. A glance at any sort of list of good scholarships like Truman Scholars, Marshall Scholars and Rhodes Scholars will show a high contingent of Chicago students. Maybe Chicago just has a high yield because people like it and know it’s a good school? </p>

<p>I think the comparatively lower yield that Duke experiences can mostly be explained by the way it’s located in the same state as the excellent UNC-Chapel Hill (which is often a much lower cost option for many North Carolina applicants). Duke is still an excellent school, it just so happens to be located in North Carolina. </p>

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<p>^I agree that UChicago is a great school. It’s funny that when I applied to schools, UChicago’s acceptance rate was nearly 50% and most of the top students in my high school (a top Chicago suburban school) thought UChicago was not selective (read: prestigious) enough to apply. How times have changed…The admissions there has really taken a monumental shift. (Incidentally, Duke’s acceptance rate was ~18-20% at the time.) Also, UChicago got rid of their crazy specific essay questions that nobody wanted to take the effort to write unless they really had a strong inkling to attend there (which most senior high school students don’t - “some dude could draw a perfect circle. What is your skill?”). My point in this is that the admissions landscape is dynamic and ever-changing. Duke is doing a good job at admitting an increasingly competitive, accomplished, interesting, and diverse class, which is the ultimate goal of the admissions process.</p>

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<p>“I think it’s because Duke competes with HYPSM, but is always considered as a “fall back” school to those 5 rather than a priority choice” </p>

<p>Aside from the fact that using a word like “always” makes the statement patently false, it is not reflective of reality. Once accepted to any of the Top 10 Universities + LACs (of which Duke is clearly one) from which you will receive a world-class education and have access to virtually the same opportunities, the real issue becomes one of “fit and finance.” </p>

<p>Each of the preeminent schools have their own unique mix of attributes. Many will find those associated with Duke (or another) highly appealing - and as a result choose Duke (or another) over HYPSM. While choosing Duke may result in a nominal trade-off in prestige vs. HYPSM (you might find this link amusing: <a href=“Ranking Colleges by Prestigiosity - #166 by rjkofnovi - College Search & Selection - College Confidential Forums”>http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/978040-ranking-colleges-by-prestigiosity-p12.html&lt;/a&gt;), many will appreciate, among many other attributes, the following: </p>

<ul>
<li> Awesomely beautiful Gothic Wonderland campus with outstanding facilities (I have been to all of the Top 10, spent substantial time at most and IMO Duke has the most beautiful campus) </li>
<li> Location in a kinder gentler climate (than all but Stanford) </li>
<li> One of the two Top 10 to have highly competitive D1 Sports (including, arguably, the toughest away game in college basketball at Cameron) and the associated school spirit </li>
<li> A touch of Southern gentility </li>
<li> A more moderate political, social and religious environment where respect is given to views across the spectrum rather than just those that are “politically correct” and to the far left (I recognize that among the Top 10 non are truly moderate - Duke just provides more opportunity than most others for conservatives and moderates to comfortably co-exist without obfuscating their views) </li>
<li> Highly prestigious merit based scholarships (AB Duke and Robertson) </li>
<li> Connected to premier graduate schools and access to excellent research opportunities<br></li>
<li> Safer than many inner-city campuses </li>
</ul>

<p>Going back to the original topic of this post - Duke Yield - it is important to note that, brushing aside HYPSM, the yield is actually quite strong. It exceeds those of the top three LACs which hover around 40% as well as those of many other “elite” colleges. As long as Duke chooses to take the best possible applicants regardless of the likelihood of their attending (and not game the system by denying those candidates it believes will choose HYPSM - as other universities and LACs now do), particularly in the context of an upwardly spiraling number of applications per candidate, it will be a challenge to have the yield reach or sustainably exceed 50%. That said, as long as the student body is exemplary and attending Duke provides students with an extraordinary breadth of opportunities at the university and beyond, as is clearly the case, does yield really matter? </p>

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<p>If Duke is accepting a significant portion of its class from the wait list (310 for the class entering in 2012 according to the Common Data Set), doesn’t that tend to inflate the yield figures? </p>

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<p>Unless Duke offers significant amount of money, very few smart kids would rather be at Duke than at one of HYPSM. This isn’t insulting. This is a fact. There is no doubt in my mind that Duke is a great school. It is. But it isn’t on HYPSM league. </p>

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<p>^ The reason why HYPSM are regarded as the best schools is because they manage to attract the best students. What you’re saying is just as true of Penn, Dartmouth, Chicago, Cornell, JHU and Columbia as it is of Duke. Having said that, Duke probably has the highest concentration of students who turned down HYPSM. Not just because of its fabulous scholarships (which do play a significant role), but also because of its distinctive culture. One of my best friends turned down Stanford and Yale for the AB even though he was getting similar amounts of aid at the other schools. </p>

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<p>

Correct.</p>

<p>

Correct.</p>

<p>

Maybe just one of the highest, but not the highest. That probably goes to either UPenn or Columbia. I think even Dartmouth is more attractive than Duke. And, so is Brown. Duke is just as about as attractive as Chicago. However, I do believe - and am convinced - that Duke is more attractive than Cornell, JHU, Northwestern, Rice, Notre Dame and a number of elite private schools. </p>

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<p>

I think your best friend isn’t alone. I think there are many more students who ended up at Duke now despite multiple acceptances to HYPSM. But I guess we both have to agree that there are more people who would turn down Duke for one of HYPSM. </p>

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<p>I’d like to chime in here.</p>

<p>What RML asserts is undoubtedly true, but Duke and HYPSM schools are peers by most sane definitions. </p>

<p>Here’s a recent statement attributed to Princeton’s provost. He categorically states that Duke is a ‘peer institution’. It’s an excerpt from an article which was recently published (May 6th, 2014) in Princeton’s student newspaper:</p>

<p>“He (the Provost) noted that the University regularly monitors amendments made by its peer institutions such as Yale University or Duke University.”</p>

<p><a href=“http://dailyprincetonian.com/news/2014/05/at-cpuc-meeting-princeton-revises-sexual-violence-definitions/”>http://dailyprincetonian.com/news/2014/05/at-cpuc-meeting-princeton-revises-sexual-violence-definitions/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>Hearing it from the horse’s mouth should quell all debate.</p>

<p>In the interest of full disclosure: I’m a current Duke freshman who was wait-listed by Princeton and Stanford and rejected from Harvard. I did however make it to Cornell, Penn, Dartmouth and Pomona College in California. </p>

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<p>Posters on this thread need to review the fairly detailed data Duke makes available, as seen here:</p>

<p><a href=“Duke Accepts 797 Early Decision Applicants | Duke Today”>http://today.duke.edu/2013/12/earlydecision2013-14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>That data reveals three primary points:</p>

<p>1.) Duke does not rely on ED as much as other schools, especially for their ENGINEERING school. Duke fills about 44% of it’s College Arts & Sciences class with ED admits, and only 37% of it’s engineering school with ED admits.</p>

<p>2.) RD yield is lower as Duke sends out more offers and has more seats to fill in the RD round, and this is seen, again, especially for the ENGINEERING school (27% yield on engineering RD admits, compared to 35% yield on College A&S admits). This makes sense because there are a ton of great engineering schools out there, and Duke’s undergrad engineering program isn’t known as being a premier place (e.g. behind Caltech, Berkeley, Stanford, MIT, Carnegie Mellon, Cornell, Michigan, etc. etc.). </p>

<p>3.) For some reason, Duke receives comparatively fewer ED applications (about 2500-3000 a year) than some of its peer schools. In comparison, Penn receives 4500-5000 ED apps, Cornell receives about 4500-5000, Stanford about 6500-7000 SCEA apps (essentially ED), and Harvard 4500-5000. Some peer schools received a comparable number of early apps (Columbia ~3000, Brown ~3000, Northwestern ~3000), but they accept more students early.</p>

<p>From the data above, it appears that Duke’s yield would improve if it made heavier use of ED, especially for the engineering school, where its yield suffers the most. </p>

<p>I’m heavily opposed to early decision (as I’ve written in many posts in the past) but, if it’s an evil that’s here to stay (or even expand, as seen at Penn and Northwestern), I’m not sure why Duke doesn’t take ~50% of the class early. Almost all other schools have ceded yield advantage to Harvard, Stanford, et al., and take themselves out of the competition by compelling students to apply early decision. Should Duke care about yield, it seems as if it should follow suit - again especially on the engineering front, where there are many peer schools that offer better engineering programs (MIT, Caltech, Berkeley, Cornell, Carnegie Mellon, Stanford, etc.). </p>

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<p>Why take 50% of your class ED and miss out on some 29,000 potential superstars in the RD round? </p>

<p>I’m happy Duke doesn’t take the cheap route in ED like other schools do. </p>

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<p>Jwest said: “Why take 50% of your class ED and miss out on some 29,000 potential superstars in the RD round?”</p>

<p>Well, let’s not blur the numbers too much here: Duke takes about 42-45% of its class early. That’s only 5-7% lower than many of its peer ED schools. </p>

<p>The more students a school accepts RD, the more resources it needs to expend to “woo” those accepted students with other options. The more and harder it needs to market to these students, and the more uncertainty it poses for the final look of the incoming class. Schools tend to like ED, I think, because it eases financial aid burdens (the ED pool tends to be wealthier), increases certainty in terms of who is actually matriculating, and also eases monetary expenditures for recruiting. </p>

<p>As seen in other posts, I strongly object to ED, but Duke’s already proven to be on the ED bandwagon, and is there that much difference taking 43% early vs. 49% early? (Especially if more ED accepts are engineers, that would help Duke’s yield significantly.) Duke’s decided to be a player in the ED game, so why not just bump up the amount it takes ED? </p>

<p>I think posters here misinterpret what yield means. Schools could, essentially, have whatever yield they wanted (up to 100% if they took 100% of the class early decision). Duke’s decision to take slightly fewer early than Columbia or Brown or Penn may be a reflection of a slightly weaker ED pool at Duke (in comparison to the incoming stats they want), or a contentment with having a yield of about 45% and trying to get as many of the cross-admitted Harvard et al. pool as possible. There’s nothing wrong with that, although it may be a more expensive strategy. </p>

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<p>Actually, I take back what I just said. Duke’s been steadily increasing it’s use of ED. This year, it’s in line with all its peers except Penn, as seen here: </p>

<p>For the Class of 2015, Duke accepted about 36% of the class early. Same thing for Class of 2016. Then, for the Class of 2017, Duke bumped up to taking 43% of the class early. For the Class of 2018, Duke bumped this up again to taking 47% of its class early. </p>

<p>Class of 2016 stats here: <a href=“http://admissions.duke.edu/images/uploads/process/Class2016Profile.pdf”>http://admissions.duke.edu/images/uploads/process/Class2016Profile.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>Class of 2018 info here: <a href=“http://www.dukechronicle.com/articles/2013/12/13/duke-class-2018-will-be-47-early-decision”>http://www.dukechronicle.com/articles/2013/12/13/duke-class-2018-will-be-47-early-decision&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>You can see the considerable increase in ED use (from 36% to 47% in just two years). This is about the same as Northwestern (46% of the class ED) and Columbia (49% of the class ED) and more than Dartmouth and Brown (which take about 40% of their classes ED). </p>

<p>So, actually, Duke seems to be making as much or MORE use of ED than all of its peers, save Penn. This year’s yield for Duke, then, should be around 50% - about the same as NU, Brown, Dartmouth, etc. It seems that basically no school is willing to take on Harvard, Stanford etc. in the open market. </p>

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<p>2018 yield rates
Dartmouth 54.5%
Brown 59.9 %
Penn 66%
Harvard 82%</p>

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<p>How about this angle. The Ivies and many schools of that ilk offer ZERO merit aid. As such those schools recevie fewer applicants among those who will have large EFCs. Duke will get some of those applicants in the (often) vain hope that they can garner one of the few merit scholarships available. Ultimately, those students then make the difficult but wise decision to attend a more affordable option for undergrad.</p>

<p>Oh, and yes. While I think all of the more prestigious institutions are overrated, the only real advantage to going to one of the Harvard or Yale type schools is for political connections. How many US Presidents have gone to Duke for undergrad? As such it and many others will always be in the 2nd tier to many people.</p>

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<p>It is such a statistical rarity to become a US President or win a Nobel Prize that attending even Harvard with that goal in mind would be somewhat ludicrous.</p>

<p>There are 3 major factors working specifically against Duke’s yield compared to its 5 Ivy peers:</p>

<p>1.) presence of a much cheaper world-class public school as an in-state option (UNC) and 2 more states that Duke draws heavily from at the undergraduate level (UT-Austin for Texas and UVA for Virginia for in-staters) over the Ivy League
2.) a larger engineering program that is weak relative to the university’s overall reputation
3.) the admissions office doesn’t practice yield protection at all compared to its peers and simply admits the strongest students without taking into account the likelihood of actual enrollment (aka a USAMO qualifier who will likely get accepted to and choose Harvard or MIT)</p>

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<p>

Duke enrolls the 6th highest amount of National Merit Scholars in the country after HYPSM so I doubt what you are saying is true.</p>

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<p>3.) the admissions office doesn’t practice yield protection at all compared to its peers and simply admits the strongest students without taking into account the likelihood of actual enrollment (aka a USAMO qualifier who will likely get accepted to and choose Harvard or MIT) </p>

<p>Is that correct? With the admissions office now admitting about half the class ED (from 36% to 47% in just two years), that will enhance Duke’s yield. </p>

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<p>This shouldn’t be breaking news but, by its very structure, Early Decision is a form of yield protection. Schools don’t have to fight for the attention of ED admits, and ED segregates a corner of the market away from open competition. The students may very well be just as strong or stronger than the RD round, but we’d never have any way of knowing if presented with the opportunity to attend Harvard or Duke, what the Duke ED admit would choose - which is a true test of a school’s yield advantage. </p>

<p>On a broader scale, it’s worth noting that yield at virtually EVERY top school is up or holding steady - Dartmouth at 55%, Harvard at 82%, Princeton at 69%, NU at 50%+, word that Chicago may be at 60%+. </p>

<p>How is it possible that ALL these schools have stratospheric yields? If a few schools’ yields go up, shouldn’t a few others go down? </p>

<p>I think the answer is that, in one way or another, all schools practice some form of “yield protection.” Maybe the algorithms to predict who attends has gotten better, and there is a wider pool of talent out there to make accepting a great kid and denying a great kid more possible. Or, maybe heavier use of ED has minimized the numbers of students actively choosing between many peer schools. Or maybe some combination of these and other factors.</p>

<p>However you slice it, it seems increasingly rare that students are actively selecting between comparable peers. In the old days, when more students applied RD than ED, it wasn’t rare for a great student to choose actively between say, Duke, NU, Columbia, and Cornell. Nowadays, a great number of students apply early and effectively only choose one college, or, in the RD round, as there are fewer slots because ED fills classes, great students only pick between 2 or mayybe 3 peers (as opposed to 4+). </p>

<p>We’re getting to an age where essentially, colleges aren’t competing with one another for students, and every top college can have a 60-70% yield, because most students essentially hitch their wagon to a single school. </p>

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<p>RML is dead wrong about Dartmouth being preferred to Duke. According to Parchment and numerous other websites, Duke decimates Dartmouth in cross-admit battles. The gap will only widen in the future because Dartmouth is currently mired in massive scandals.
Brown does manage to hold its own against most schools. This is a rather inexplicable phenomenon. Brown is objectively a sub-par research university by most metrics, but it still does disproportionately well against powerhouses like Hopkins, Chicago, Duke and Penn.
Wharton decimates Duke in cross admit battles, but anecdotal evidence and data from Parchment leads me to believe that Duke outperforms Penn’s college by a reasonable margin. Columbia beats Duke handily, but Columbia is quickly becoming the new Yale.
Thus, the only schools outside of HYPSM that trounce Duke are Wharton and Columbia. Duke beats Dartmouth, Cornell and arguably Penn CAS. Brown might have the slightest edge over Duke, but I suspect that this will change soon as more students choose to major in STEM fields. Chicago’s recent rise makes it difficult to compare it to Duke because updated data may not be readily available. In any case, Duke trounced Chicago in the very recent past. </p>