The SCU admit rate last year for ED was 69%, and the admit rate for EA was 71%. This seems unusual. Is there any advantage to applying ED then? Why lock ourselves into an ironclad commitment if they have the same (or slightly better) odds by applying EA? Or am I missing something?
What is missing from looking only at admission rates is the strength of the applicant pools.
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EA will be higher admit rates in many cases because those are not binding offers. Colleges pre-2021 had a better handle on their yields, but lots went sideways last year.
Example at Generic College U:
ED 32% admit with 460 offered, 460 must accept. 450 enroll with 10 demonstrating the fin aid offer was not enough. Another 150 from this group deferred to RD and then waitlisted.
EA 58% admitted with 1100 offered, 0 must accept, 215 enroll. Some waitlisted.
RD 23% Accepted, 2400 offered, 0 must accept, 615 enroll. Some deferred and waitlisted.
Projected Class Size of 1300
With 1280 from the three rounds this actually leaves room to start pulling from waiting lists. The waiting lists will include some ED applicants they know really wanted to be with them and will drop where they committed to be there.
During 21 Cycle many colleges never even dipped into the waiting lists. They had 2020 kids who sat out a year during Covid so that added into the numbers and more accepted to some highly selective and selective colleges that anticipated.