I think those with straight forward finances who use the school’s NPC and perhaps even discuss it with the financial aid department should be able to apply ED with some confidence that the ‘meets full need’ school will indeed, meet full need. If the student has a lot of items being put into the NPC that need explaining, a couple of step parents, huge amounts of equity in a home, then maybe the NPC isn’t going to give a good indication of need or award. Some of the Ivy schools and others without merit do pre-reads for athletes on financials too, so why not ask?
My kids certainly needed financial aid, and i would not have had a problem relying on the NPC because our financial information is so simple the NPC would either tell us yea or nay.