<p>It seems like it should because there doesn't appear to be much activity on the wait-list. Thoughts?</p>
<p>Assuming Duke is targeting a class of 1,720 and they don’t need to go to the waitlist at all (which isn’t the case because there were a few accepted) and that all of the approx. 800 ED acceptances enroll, that would put the yield at exactly 50% overall (1720/(800+2640)). Since those assumptions likely aren’t true (and actually 2700 students were accepted in the RD round if you count those deferred ED and class size target might be closer to 1705), I expect the overall yield to be about 46%.</p>
<p>^ The yield was 46% last year though. It’s likely to jump to at least 49% this year. </p>
<p>I suspect Duke '18 will be “just” at 50 percent, or ever so slightly below.</p>
<p>However, to a large degree that misses a key point. Duke could drive yield to any reasonable quantitative value desired, which the University has fortunately opted not to do. The arithmetic is simple: near 33K applicants, only approximately 1725 freshmen to be matriculated, and well over 40 percent ED candidates. Further – and critically – annually a LARGE (tens of thousands) applicant subset exists that can hardly be distinguished (in any “paper assessment”) one from another; all these candidate would do perfectly well at Duke, but only a handful will be accepted. Were Duke even slightly to increase the ED acceptance rate, the class’ composition would be essentially unaltered, however, the yield statistic could be mathematically driven to a pre-determined point.</p>
<p>I am very pleased that we do not play such “games;” to do so would prove nothing of substance and would not enhance Duke even marginally, but it would degrade what the University struggles to make a very fair process.</p>
<p>"^ The yield was 46% last year though. It’s likely to jump to at least 49% this year."</p>
<p>Ok, fair enough. I had thought it was around 42%, but you are right that it was 45.6%. Ok, so 48-49%. 
Just shy of 50. The numbers would really have to work out almost perfectly for it to be above 50, but who knows!</p>
<p>If the class size they’re aiming for is 1740 (which is what it was last year) then the yield would be above 50% provided that no one was taken off the wait-list. Assuming that 100 people were taken off the wait-list (which appears to be an unrealistically high estimate) and 60% of those people accepted their offers, the yield would still be 48%. </p>
<p>Ideally, Duke tries to matriculate 1,725 freshman; however, it seems annual this number grows by one or two dozen. </p>