Would this pragmatic law greatly reduce rapes on campus and elsewhere?

[sylvan8798]

@traveller2013

Suppose 99% of women would never lie about rape, but 1% would if a man annoyed them. Suppose 1% of men rape 5% of women, and 1 out of 10, 0.5% report it. Suppose of the 1% who would lie, half do each year, 0.5%. That would mean 1% (0.5%+0.5%) of young women report a rape each year. These numbers are very believable. But if 0.5% are true and 0.5% are false, that means half are false. So it is very possible and likely that even though 99% of women would never lie about rape, half of rape accusations are false. See how that works? Indeed, the preponderance of evidenance standard says it is OK to find someone responsible if there is a 49% chance they are innocent.

I said that if after hearing a man’s and woman’s story, the woman’s sounds believable, give her the benefit of him having 2-7 days in jail, privately, with work release, longer if it is it is not his first accusation. We almost never know someone is guilty of any crime, and have convicted people of murder without knowing. 2 days is nothing by comparison. It is not true we are just locking up an innocent person,** but rather someone with a 50% chance of guilt. **I’m asking for this in leiu of ruining his life with an expulsion, which is far worse than just 2 days in a scary cell. When guilt is unknown, we should aim for a penalty that merely deters rather than achieves justice. Laws can be changed to keep the jail time private.

You made up your own stats and then you tried to use them as if they were facts. I don’t think you get to do that.