<p>mostly…deferral is like a late rejection.</p>
<p>^ Well that’s “just great”!</p>
<p>Do they assume deferred applicants whom they then accept rd will have a higher yield? Why do they have a smaller chance than just rd people then?</p>
<p>deferral acceptance rate is absolutely tiny, less than 5% - this is because it’s being weighed against such a higher pool and on the argument of the reality that all the other applicants in this pool are not restricted - so there’s just such a higher quality potential on top - and the deferral pool is just seen as “possible candidate for SCEA” but there were better applicants, however they certainly had qualified greater than a rejection</p>
<p>Is there an outside source for the information regarding the deferral-to-acceptance rate, or are you using the results threads from previous years?</p>
<p>I ask simply to know if some sort of study had been conducted or if the rate you’re using is just representative of the chunk of applicants that posted on these forums.</p>
<p>uh - it’s based on previous years - which is what all outside sources are.</p>
<p>Yale and many other schools (many ivies) release the stats</p>
<p>such as those located here.</p>
<p>[Yale</a> “Factsheet” | Office of Institutional Research](<a href=“http://oir.yale.edu/yale-factsheet#StatisticsonCurrentFreshmenClass]Yale”>http://oir.yale.edu/yale-factsheet#StatisticsonCurrentFreshmenClass)
[Early</a> admit rate plunges to 13.4 percent | Yale Daily News](<a href=“http://www.yaledailynews.com/news/2008/dec/15/early-admit-rate-plunges-to-134-percent/]Early”>http://www.yaledailynews.com/news/2008/dec/15/early-admit-rate-plunges-to-134-percent/)</p>
<p>deferral stats I think were pulled from some post i read on YDN or some site years back - long story short this information is not a trade secret or anything of the sort. It’s also relevant for the last 3-4 years and such.</p>
<p>I wish I knew how to quote and site but I do not. Credit to Descartesz (last post on last year’s pledge thread) <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/yale-university/1023851-official-yale-2015-scea-pledge-thread-33.html?highlight=scea+pledge[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/yale-university/1023851-official-yale-2015-scea-pledge-thread-33.html?highlight=scea+pledge</a></p>
<p>Of 139 original CC SCEA pledgers…</p>
<p>Admitted during SCEA round: 36 (26%)</p>
<p>Deferred during SCEA round: 74 (53%)</p>
<p>Denied during SCEA round: 29 (21%) (non-indication assumed to be denial)</p>
<p>Deferred then Admitted during RD: 7 (9%)</p>
<p>Deferred then Waitlisted during RD: 1 (1%)</p>
<p>Deferred then Denied during RD: 66 (90%)</p>
<p>Total 2015 SCEA pledgers eventually Admitted: 43 (31%) (an impressive number)</p>
<p>/end quote</p>
<p>Based on this, pledgers have a higher admit rate overall as well as a higher deferred->accepted rate than the normal pool accepted rate (9% compared to the 7% last year I think). I guess everyone here should consider pledging to up their chances.</p>
<p>I have been wondering if it makes any difference if posting on the pledge thread as one of your first 5 CC comments has any significance on the rate of admissions. By this I mean do people who have been on CC for awhile have a better chance. I would try compiling these stats (I love messing with numbers lol) but I do not have the time.</p>
<p>I’m sure there is a good correlation of the “people who have been on CC for awhile” and acceptances, but correlation =/= causation haha</p>
<p>“I guess everyone here should consider pledging to up their chances.” isnt it that people who are already highly-motivated and love Yale pledge and thus have a higher acceptance rate because of their own qualities, rather than posting increases your chances? Causation vs. correlation!</p>
<p>I guess the reality of deferral basically being a late rejection hasn’t really hit home until now 
Oh well. I can only hope for the best, expect the worst haha</p>
<p>@ youwrotethis- I don’t see it as a late rejection. I mean your chances are cut in half but 9% (based on the CC statistic) is still pretty good compared to rd admission rates at Yale and other schools. Then again, I always like to overestimate hope.</p>
<p>And yes, I was just joking about pledging to increase your chances.</p>
<p>Hey -
Let’s not let reality scare us. Keep your hopes up. At this point in time, that’s all we really have. Whatever Dec. 15th brings… just know you’re special. :)</p>
<p>Knowing that we’re all in the same boat at the moment is a lot of consolation haha And yes, we are all special :D</p>
<p>I. Am. So. Tense. </p>
<p>I really didn’t hit me how that almost every applicant is just like me in the sense that they probably have high grades, great EC, and are honestly good people until now. I’m going up against others who almost have exactly the same grades/classes/activities as me and only about eight out of a hundred of us will be accepted. My confidence level keeps going down. I go to a large public school that has about 60% of seniors going on to some sort of college (a third of the people who actually go to college go to the community college) so me applying to Yale was almost unheard of. I got letters from almost every core department so the many of the teachers already know and the counselors love to gossip. Almost everyone at my school knows I’m applying to Yale and it would be SO awkward if I get deferred or rejected. They believe that I’m have a good chance of getting accepted. I honestly don’t think I can get it. </p>
<p>8 days.</p>
<p>Hopefully they release it the 9th like some schools are and just leave us alone!</p>
<p>As for stats - Deferral is indeed a low acceptance rate (which is typical for all) but at the end i wouldn’t be faithful.</p>
<p>I believe that the acceptance rate for deferred SCEA applicants nearly doubles the RD acceptance rate based on data not gleaned from CC pledge threads.</p>
<p>Well, guys! Yale has basically made their decisions about who has been admitted/deferred/rejected at this juncture in time. Wishing everyone tons of luck and sending out my best vibes :)</p>
<p>I’m still thinking about how I’m going to deal with a rejection… lol</p>
<p>Actually, I’d rather get rejected than deferred… :D</p>
<p>Btw, does anyone know whether decisions come out at exactly 5p.m.?
Also, do we get an email in addition to the Yale websystem acknowledgment?
And does the website get “overloaded” at 5p.m. so that no one can access the page? :)</p>
<p>Your Eli account turns blue with the Yale logo and a bulldog replacing the ‘A’, I think. I read that somewhere, but it was from a few years ago. I’m not sure if the website will get overloaded…but that seems unlikely. I’ll be sitting there and refreshing it starting from 4:30PM…haha… :|</p>