<p>I’ve been working on it. </p>
<p>Here’s what I have so far, some of it stretches things, but it’s something.</p>
<p>I’m betting Gibby’s second number is higher than he’s asserted — doing educatedish guesses for african americans and native americans alone takes up 121 of those 177 spots.</p>
<hr>
<p>One approach:</p>
<p>Early admissions is a time for top colleges to gobble up as many hooks as they can. So that might mean that a disproportionate amount of each hook are admitted early. When it comes to URMs, though, this might be countervailed by the relative scarcity of URMs who apply to Yale early compared to other groups. </p>
<p>Yale’s percentage of African Americans hovers around 8.7% — for a class of 1355 students — thus about 118 African Americans. Yale’s yield rate for the class of 2016 was about 68.6 percent. This would mean that around 1.46 times as many blacks were accepted (if their yield rate to top colleges is like that of the general population) — around 172.28. The yield rate in SCEA should have been much higher than the yield rate, regular round.</p>
<p>From this I’d bet that at least 100 of Yale’s early admissions will be given to African Americans, if not more. </p>
<p>The truth of this assessment depends on the fuzzy truth of my assumptions about black admittee yield and early round bias for URMs.</p>
<hr>
<p>Another approach:</p>
<p>At harvard in 2012, African Americans constituted about 9% of the 4245 early applying pool. Since they are similar schools with similar admissions and finaid policies, I’ll shamelessly extrapolate. That’s about 382 applicants. (26.1% acceptance rate at Yale!!) Unless, you know, Harvard attracts all the top early-applying black applicants (possible, a man can dream, etc.) </p>
<p>For all URMs (Blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans), there about 819 of Harvard early applicants of these groups (19.3% of the pool). </p>
<p>Also:
Native Americans should have close to a 50% acceptance rate at Harvard, especially in the early admit rounds (since they constitute slightly over 1 % of the class and only slightly over 1% apply early) — that takes away around 21 more seats.</p>
<p>Sources:
[Harvard</a> Gazette: College Class of 2010 is the most diverse in Harvard history<a href=“much%20over%20half%20of%20applicants%20with%20at%20least%20one%20perfect%20SAT%20score!!”>/url</a>
<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/yale-university/1416504-yale-releases-early-app-count-4-514-a.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/yale-university/1416504-yale-releases-early-app-count-4-514-a.html](<a href=“http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/2006/04.06/03-admissions.html]Harvard”>http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/2006/04.06/03-admissions.html)</a> (lol)
[url=<a href=“http://www.jbhe.com/2011/12/jbhe-annual-survey-black-first-year-students-at-the-nations-leading-research-universities/]JBHE”>JBHE Annual Survey: Black First-Year Students at the Nation’s Leading Research Universities : The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education]JBHE</a> Annual Survey: Black First-Year Students at the Nation’s Leading Research Universities : The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education<a href=“yessss.”>/url</a></p>