<p>I have a good feeling about your application. No way to tell, but I look at the dramatic upward swing, the high level of success you had in sports which demonstrates ability to achieve, and the fact that they sent a supplemental request which indicates someone thought you were a potential yes and worth the significant extra effort to send through augmented review. No way to tell for sure, but I would say you look like the type of admit we often see under the holistic augmented review. </p>
<p>UCLA decision has zero to do with your chances at Cal, or near zero anyway. The tiny amount of correlation is because if you had extreme stats - 2400 SAT, perfect UC GPA, very ambitious schedule of HS classes, high SAT IIs - then I can’t imagine that you wouldn’t get a yes at every UC campus (including UCLA). However, for the other 999,999 out of a million, the decisions of the two schools are totally unrelated. </p>
<p>Personally I would put it at about 70-75% likelihood you will get an offer of admission on March 25th, but understand that is a mix of the factors above and a bit of intuition.</p>