Congrats on your excellent record! I think you have a shot at any of the schools on your list. That said, the reaches are a reach for any unhooked candidate, despite the accomplishments.
I personally know 2 recent graduates from our area: One was male, applied as math major, excellent public high school, National Merit, 36 ACT, straight As with max AP classes, finished calculus in 9th grade and had multiple university math classes beyond this, captain in 2 sports, work experience etc. The other was male, applied as mechanical engineering, excellent public school, National Merit, full IB diploma, captain of 3 sports, All State athlete, arts accomplishments, lots of leadership, interesting life story. Both of them got shut out of ALL their reaches (lots of overlap with your list). The first ended up at our non-elite but solid flagship, the other ended up at Boulder paying way more than his family had hoped to pay (got only trivial merit.) My point is there is lots of competition at the most rejective schools. You are an excellent candidate, but so are thousands of others.
I agree with those who say to run the NPCs for all your reach schools. Some of these schools do provide need-based aid even to families making $250K+ depending on assets–others do not.
I agree with those who say that Arizona is an excellent choice and therefore a great “sure thing” school.
I agree with the idea of looking into the schools that provide big merit for NMFs. These schools also make great safeties, and a full ride merit scholarship is prestigious in itself (you can list it on your resume). Big merit NMF/NMSF schools and their specialties
Best of luck!!!