One can make inferences since the olympiad community (especially the math one) is very tight. They pretty much know whenever one of the olympiad medalists got accepted for freshman and transfer admissions.
The inferences we can draw are these:
- MIT doesn’t believe one trick ponies will do well
- MIT believes you do have to have good academics in addition, but AFAIK the number of those who are in the Class of 2025 who already have international accomplishments (i.e., medals) is in the 100 range, with that number expected to rise [due to contests in the summer]
- Doing well in two contests is better than doing well in one contest and reflects highly positively
- MIT Chris has said and I like to copy-paste, "Medals are not a prerequisite. Medals are not something in and of themselves that we value. Medals are one of many ways by which an applicant can demonstrate extraordinary intelligence, skill, contributions, etc.” Original quote here (2013): Apply straightway and get selected in MIT - #16 by MITChris
I also see that MIT Chris has said that they have turned away as many or more IMO gold medalists as they accepted. (While this is a phenomenal achievement, it is also no silver bullet. However, I’m sure applicants would prefer a 50/50 chance over a 2% chance…)
- There are many markers or factors that indicate higher (and sometimes MUCH higher) rates of admission.
Being American,
Winning >1 medal, especially if there’s a gold in there,
From multiple contests,
Going to a college preparatory school like Exeter or Andover,
etc.
There are a lot of things (factors, contests, even things like MIT PRIMES, RSI, Regeneron STS, etc.) that MIT considers.