Trend and future of top tier college acceptance rates

What are the main reasons for recent trends in rapid drops in college acceptance rates in the hyper-elite colleges (top 15 US News)? Acceptance rates at less prestigious universities are either not going anywhere or are seeing higher acceptance rates. Is it simply because more people every year just want to go to the top universities and there are no space for them, or are there other underlying factors? Also, what do you see college acceptance rates at these top tier elite universities ending up in a few years or decades? Will schools like Johns Hopkins, Cornell, Harvard, Dartmouth be nearing ridiculous acceptance rates like 2 or 3%? Do you believe that there will be efforts to counter this hyper-competitiveness as supply is unable to match demand for these universities?

  1. common app makes it easy to apply to many schools. Every year admit rates get lower, feeding the hysteria, so kid’s apply to 10-20 schools instead of 5-8 like they did 10 years ago

  2. Alot of internationals are applying to US colleges. ALOT. Some colleges have 20% or more internationals. This increases competition.

  3. The harder it is to get into, the more kids want to compete. The college prep and counseling industry is growing because smart kids want to be more competive earlier and earlier in high school. Many end up doing activities or taking classes they have little interest in to pad the resume. Parents are complicit here also.

I don’t know where it’s going. It’s ridiculous.

My prediction for 2030: Harvard will have a 0.1% acceptance rate.

Something has to give. Common App limits applications to 20, but it’s excessive. School guidance counselors have to step in and limit how many colleges kids apply to. Some already do this. Paretns need to not give their kids free rein to apply to as many schools as they want. It’s MUCH crazier than it was last year.

International students aren’t so much of a problem since the elite private schools effectively cap the number of international students that can get in, but otherwise, pretty much all of the reasons listed above.

Even if the schools cap the number of internationals that can get it, if more apply the overall acceptance rate is lower.

Here are some historical trends to look at: https://www.■■■■■■■■■■■/ivywise-knowledgebase/admission-statistics/ The majority of schools have gotten 1.5-3 times more selective in 10 years. But in the short run, many schools have only reported slight decreases in acceptance rate. Harvard got just 500 more apps this year than the last year, and Stanford just 76. I think the most prestigious schools are reaching a point in which they’ll only see slight increases from year to year simply because there aren’t as many high scores to go around, whereas top LACs and universities like Vanderbilt/U’Chicago/etc still aren’t getting the full reach of all qualified applicants and have the room to go up. If things remain as they are now, I don’t think we’ll be seeing the same degree of decreases in ten years as we did with the above group. But colleges may play the marketing game to keep up, so it’s hard to say. There’s a big competitive spirit with admission rates, and those who’re winning like U’Chicago are definitely being noticed.