The Office of Undergraduate Admission announced today that 2,063 high school students have been admitted to the Class of 2020 from a pool of 43,997.
Stanford University has offered admission to 2,063 students, including 745 applicants who were accepted last December through the early action program, the Office of Undergraduate Admission announced today.
http://admission.stanford.edu/news.html
If they keep last year’s class size (about 1732), they expect the yield to be close to 84%, which is really high. So more than likely they may take students from the waitlist.
The school on the other coast may admit about 2000, so its admit rate could be around 2000/39000 =5.1%.
I really will not be surprised if the yield rate goes as high up as 84%. Stanford is all the rage these days. Congrats to everyone admitted!
@ewho Last year’s freshman class size was larger than expected due to the high yield. They’re most likely trying to hit a class size of around 1690 for ~82% yield, which is more reasonable.
The class size should be close to 1690~1700. If the initial yield is about same as last year’s 81%, they should need (1690~1700) - 2063*.81=(1690~1700) - 1671= (20~30). Adjust to a possible higher yield, they could take about 25 students from the waitlist.
I think they may end up taking more than 25 students from the waitlist.
Dean Shaw has publicly stated a goal of 1,730 for the class of 2020. Here is the article where he is quoted:
With 2,063 admits * 0.81 (last year’s yield rate) = 1,671. Let’s say the yield rate increases to 0.82 (perhaps unlikely as last year was an all-time record), that would produce 1,691. Thus, I think that Stanford will probably end up taking at least 40 kids from the waitlist, maybe more. Apparently, the admissions staff is already calling students on the waitlist and offering them admissions.
FWIW, I think every school should go to its waitlist every year. I say so for three reasons:
These reasons help explain why virtually all schools–except Stanford in some years–goes to the waitlist. Here is an older article from the Harvard Crimson where the dean of admissions says they might take over 100 students from the waitlist. Apparently, one year Harvard took 228 kids from the waitlist!
http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2011/3/31/students-waitlist-admissions-college/
In 2012 Stanford really screwed up by admitting too many students. The goal was 1,675 entering students and there were 1,765. This caused significant problems with the dorms. This fall two new dorms are coming online, so there is finally room for a few more kids. The 2012 mistake must rest clearly on the shoulders of the Rick Shaw, the dean of admissions. He really messed up on one of the most important metrics. There is no reason to do this given the waitlist. My guess is that individual admissions staff pushed hard for “their kids” and Shaw couldn’t say no.
Harvard’s initial yield is lower than last year’s. This could mean that Stanford’s is at least about the same as last year’s.
http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/5/12/yield-rate-80-2020/
@Hoggirl, @Multiverse7 and @SocalPapa,
Last year’s class size was 1732. So, If the number, 1798 of incoming students, is correct, then this year’s class size could be planned to expand to around 1800, which is about 100 students more, I guess.
Of those 1798 students, 25-30 of them could be transfer students, so the actual number from REA/RD could be 1798-30=1768.
They might as well have accepted about 20-30 students from the waitlist, in this case they could have accepted 2063+30=2093 students in total.
The yield by this calculation should be 1768/2093=84.4%, which is still really high for me. I am not sure how to think about this. Oh, yeah, Stanford is making headlines in all fronts.
I think your calculations are reasonable. We probably won’t know the yield rate for sure until the Common Data is released in the fall. A couple of points:
Rick Shaw said in the spring that the goal for the Class of 2020 was 1,730 students. I don’t know why just a month or so later he would go 38 higher. On the other hand, Shaw does have a record of admitting and then enrolling too many students. My guess (and it is only a guess) is that admissions officers push hard for their kids and Shaw doesn’t say no as often as he should.
Last year 15 transfer students enrolled.
This year according to CC some kids were admitted off the waiting list. It appears that this activity occurred soon after May 1 and has been quiet for some time. 20-30 off the wait list seems reasonable although it is higher than in prior years.
Whether the yield rate is 80%, 82%, or 85%, Stanford is one tough place to get into.
My question really is that if Shaw knew there were more students than he needed, why did he take students from the waitlist?
Stanford sometimes keeps it quiet when they are comfortable about the results. After all, which schools should they worry about now?
I am not sure why Rich Shaw seems to over admit. There is absolutely no reason to do so given the wait list. Just under admit and then go to your wait list. As I have posted above, every top school should go to its wait list every year. It makes so much sense for several reasons. It seems that all of the top schools do so except Stanford.
Stanford infrequently goes to its wait list. Indeed, for several years the admissions department caused major problems with housing. Certainly is 2012 when the incoming class was almost 100 above the target and again in 2015 when an off campus dorm had to again become available for undergrads.
I don’t know why Shaw does this and why apparently he is having such a large class this year. My impression (with a little inside info) is that there is little monitoring of the admissions office at Stanford. If so, this is too bad. The two essential tasks of the provost should be to monitor the tenure decisions of the faculty and to monitor who the admissions department admits and who they reject.
My theory is that Shaw in conjunction with the provost and others sets a goal for the number of incoming freshmen. People on Shaw’s staff, however, push for just one or two more of these amazing kids. Shaw then says, “OK but just this once.” It of course happens again. The provost doesn’t call him on it, so it continues.
Just an educated guess on my part. But I don’t know what other explanation would fit the data. If the yield rate keeps increasing each year, then (1) you have to adjust for the probable increase, and (2) you would not be going to the waitlist this year.
Others might have other explanations.
Good analysis @ewho. About 84% yield seems possible. That would be an exceptionally high figure, perhaps the highest of any national university ever (or at least in the last 50 years). It would also be remarkable given the geographic/academic draw of the Ivy League schools and MIT, as well all the scholarship money that non-Ivy’s tend to throw at the pool of Stanford admits.
As for the class size, I don’t see it as out of line @fredthered . Per this Washington Post article from 2014, Stanford’s goal for the size of the class entering in the fall of 2016 was 1800. They pretty much hit that exactly. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/stanford-university-plans-to-increase-its-undergraduate-enrollment-by-100-a-year/2014/09/02/7343a508-32a1-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html