4 out of 10 kids who start a four year degree don't finish in 6 years.

Parents Forum
1

According to the National Center for Educational Statistics, The 6-year graduation rate for first-time, full-time undergraduate students who began their pursuit of a bachelor’s degree at a 4-year degree-granting institution in fall 2008 was 60 percent. That is, 60 percent of first-time, full-time students who began seeking a bachelor’s degree at a 4-year institution in fall 2008 completed the degree at that institution by 2014. The 6-year graduation rate was 58 percent at public institutions, 65 percent at private nonprofit institutions, and 27 percent at private for-profit institutions. The 6-year graduation rate was 57 percent for males and 62 percent for females; it was higher for females than for males at both public (61 vs. 55 percent) and private nonprofit institutions (68 vs. 62 percent). However, at private for-profit institutions, males had a higher 6-year graduation rate than females (28 vs. 25 percent).

Six-year graduation rates for first-time, full-time students who began seeking a bachelor’s degree in fall 2008 varied according to institutional selectivity. In particular, 6-year graduation rates were highest at post secondary degree-granting institutions that were the most selective (i.e., had the lowest admissions acceptance rates), and were lowest at institutions that were the least selective (i.e., had open admissions policies). For example, at 4-year institutions with open admissions policies, 36 percent of students completed a bachelor’s degree within 6 years. At 4-year institutions where the acceptance rate was less than 25 percent of applicants, the 6-year graduation rate was 89 percent.

Do you know what the four and six year graduation rate is at your kid’s college? Parents are aware that some kids bail out of college, or get a little lost along the way and need an extra year or two to finish…but few seem to be aware of how few kids who start a four year degree finish it, even after six years.

40% don’t make it.

That’s pretty terrible to think about when your kid is taking loans that they intend to pay back with the career credential they’re hoping to earn. 4 in 10…almost half…don’t cross the finish line and get that job. Kids are left taking unskilled jobs and trying to make student loan payments on an education they didn’t finish.

I think parents need to do a better job discussing these very real pitfalls. They need to talk about consequences and Plan B. They need to discuss the finite amount of financial aid that can be given, and the importance of choosing a major wisely, and perhaps working a while until students know with some degree of certainty…roughly what subject or field they want to go into and if they do, in fact, have the aptitude for it. For many students, researching what subjects catch fire at community college (with classes that transfer to target universities) might be a very wise place to start. Particularly if these kinds of explorations can be funded out of pocket with a part time job rather than using up semesters of aid better spent at a four year college.

I’m not suggesting that students shouldn’t approach college with some flexibility as they learn more about their interests.
Most students change their major somewhat in college, or find a niche or specialty that they hadn’t considered before. I am saying that students should be encouraged to not go in blind. Researching what they want to do is a job that they need to put hours into, something they should do volunteer work to explore, something that should be foremost on their minds. It’s a responsibility. Students need a healthy realization that the window for decisions is finite, and that certain career paths require certain competencies…if they want the best chances to graduate.

40% futility rate…is just sad. It’s a tremendous waste and burden.

2

Whoa- many ways to manipulate statistics. Key phrasing- starting and finishing at the same school. What about those who transfer? Schools don’t automatically get to follow students who leave their school to discover if they got a degree elsewhere.

3

I noticed that too, wis, and you’re correct that there’s room to wonder what happens to transfers. About a third of students transfer at some point…so what you’re saying is legit.

But here’s another statistic for ya:

Among students who transfer from four-year public institutions, more than half (51.9 percent) transfer “in reverse,” to two-year public institutions.

So, half of kids who transfer don’t get four year degrees because they’re moving to two year programs.

One really important data point that people should learn to check on the colleges their kids are applying to is graduation rates. Every institution lists them.

Looking at graduation rates for specific programs is important, too.

4

If we’ve got 66% of students staying put…and 4 out of 10 of them don’t graduate with a four year degree…
And 33% of students transfer…and we know half of them don’t get a 4 year degree because they transfer in reverse…(5 out of 10 of them)

While there admittedly still exists a statistical wildcard of students who transfer multiple times in different directions…the vast majority of students will fall under the two aforementioned conditions…

Which still means…in general…a little better than 4 out of 10 kids…don’t get the 4 year degree they set out to get.

5

Did the data account for those doing co-terminal degrees or five year plans like architecture or engineering?

6

It counted undergraduate degrees achieved within the first six years.

7

As the quote in the initial post notes, graduation rates correlate with admission selectivity. So they may be less related to the school and more related to the strength of students at the school.

If your high school senior is a top-end student (4.0 GPA in hard courses, 1500+ SAT, 33+ ACT) and is committed to college, then s/he has a low risk of failing to graduate at any college (the primary risks are likely to be non-academic, like running out of money because the college is too expensive, or medical problems). But a barely college ready applicant (2.7 GPA in not that hard courses, 1000 SAT, 19 ACT) has a substantially higher risk of failing to graduate at any college that admits him/her.

8

ucbalumnus, I’d agree with that. But, it’s also important to note that highly selective schools do a terrific job of supporting their students and offering resources to help keep them on track that less selective schools might lack. I think you’re right…that top-end students have more success in general…but I think those additional resources can’t possibly hurt, you know?

My kiddo goes to a more selective school, and her cousin goes to a less selective school. Academically, they’re both top-end students with similar achievement. I have to say I’ve been surprised by some of the ways their colleges differ. My daughter’s school offers more student services, more counseling and mentoring, tutoring services, more access to research, and a ton more financial aide. (in spite of similar family incomes)

Just being able to afford college…is a serious factor in graduation rates.

9

The top-end students are least likely to need additional resources to keep them on track academically. For non-academic factors, the biggest advantage at some highly selective schools is better financial aid, but prospective students comparing admission offers should be able to compare financial aid and net prices that accompany them.

Really, it looks like college graduation rates show mostly a selection effect (i.e. how strong the students who get admitted are) with only small treatment effects (i.e. what the college does that causes its graduation rates to be higher or lower than those with similar strength students) in most cases.

10

I’m reading it differently. 40% of ALL students don’t graduate in six years from the same school. But that doesn’t mean that 40% of the ones who STAY don’t; presumably that number would be higher.

The leaving out of students who transfer has always bothered me–I transferred and my D transferred. I graduated in four years and so did she–but we’re not counted. If everyone like us were counted, the six year graduation rate would be considerably higher than 60%.

(And then there are outliers like my S who graduated from an Ivy after a six year hiatus–so ten years after starting. The degree’s still good, :slight_smile: ).

11

This “data” would be far more relevant if it told what happened to these kids after four years.

As it is…it has tons of speculation as to why this might be the case.

I’m going to say…yes…graduation rate should be looked at. BUT there are tons of reasons why folks do not graduate in 4, 5, 6 or even 10 years.

My husband would have been one of your “statistics” as he got his bachelors on the 12 year plan…but he was plenty busy pursuing another career type for 7 or 8 of those years.

I say…so what. It’s not a race. Some folks finish in more years. Some folks end up going part time. Some folks have to drop out, and come back later. Some folks enter careers that don’t require that bachelors degree…at all.

12

Yes, my husband dropped out of education as a college senior. He hitchhiked around the country and ended up working on a commune in Alaska. While building huge log structures there, he got interested in engineering and went back to school. Got his BS at 30 and his MS at 32.

13

Graduation statistics remind me of divorce statistics. The whole half of all marriages end in divorce is complete bogus, but there really aren’t too many “good” ways to calculate divorce rates since the period of marriage may easily be decades- much too long for a demographer to cover in, say, a cohort study.

This is the problem with graduation statistics, too (as others have pointed out). And, honestly, to me it entrenches the narrative that one must get a degree within X years- which is harmful for a number of reasons (based on personal experience with friends who are still working on their degrees at 25, 26, 27 and feel like failures because of that).

That said, you will never hear me argue that there aren’t serious problems with our higher ed system that stack the chips against poor students, rural students, students with families, etc. This is a very, very significant problem and I know that politicians need numbers in order to do anything so I understand the point of these studies. I just think it’s a double-edged sword :frowning:

14

Makes you wonder why some want to make college free if those paying for it are so spectacularly bad at completing the task. I have seen some state university regional campuses with 4 year graduation rates below 20% yet virtually all of the students who go there are eligible for loans. What rational person would loan a dime to anyone choosing to attend that school? And if by misfortune I were a student at that school, I would expect a discount.

15

They are spectacularly bad at completing college because the biggest reasons for dropping out of college are needing to go to work to earn money and not being able to afford the college costs, according to https://www.publicagenda.org/files/theirwholelivesaheadofthem.pdf .

16

These statistics don’t surprise me in the least. With the cost of college these days, I would expect that there are many students who have to drop out for financial reasons, or take time off or go part time while they work to be able to afford to attend. Add to that the fact that a college degree has become what a high school degree used to be, resulting in students who really don’t belong in college attending, and you have more students who either drop out or take longer to finish their degrees because they need remedial classes or to retake classes. There are also a lot more students going out of state or choosing “dream schools” that they can’t afford, exacerbating the number of students who drop out, go part time or transfer for financial reasons.

The 4 and 6 year graduation rates for the university from which my daughter graduated (in 4 years) are not impressive. However, I didn’t worry about them. I knew that she would be able to get the classes she needed (she had registration priority), I knew we could afford the school and I knew that she was well prepared in high school and not likely to have academic problems. In my mind, that took away most of the issues. Her school accepted a number of low stats students as part of their mission to educate students in the state (public flagship), there were a number of lower socieoeconomic students attending, and there were a lot of OOS students paying pricy OOS tuition - to me that added up to lower graduation rates, but for reasons that really wouldn’t affect my child.

17

The majority of students are “non-traditional” these days, and include extension, continuing ed, adult learner, online programs and mainstream schools that actually allow students to progress at their own pace, meaning a course or two at a time. The only limit on that is when two classes are required for aid. There is no limit on how long the degree takes, and they can also step out for awhile and return for a fee.

18

For the record…my kid would not be included in the four year graduation rate at her college…because…she had to take ONE core course the summer after she walked in graduation. Reason: she had a medical emergency her senior year and missed some almost three weeks of classes.

Gasp…that means she didn’t graduate in 4 years. Guess folks shouldn’t send their kids there.

In reality, this school was awesome in working with her to find that last course…and making sure she would be able to march in graduation with her class.

19

These statistics are not news to anyone who has been following the issue for more than the past five minutes. Granted, there are always people who are new to this.

20

Also, “four year” graduation rate can sometimes mislead. For example, Florida public universities require most students to take at least one summer term, even if they would otherwise complete their degrees in 8 semesters. But graduating in four years usually means 8 semesters plus a summer term of college costs, rather than 8 semesters.