<p>"As the higher education system in the U.S. faces rising costs and reduced state funding, many are asking what will colleges of the future look like? </p>
<p>According to a recent cover story in The American Interest, some wont look like anything at all, because theyll cease to exist. Author Nathan Harden estimates that in 50 years, half of the approximately 4,500 colleges and universities in the U.S. will go belly-up."</p>
<p>Great link.
Thanks.</p>
<p>You’re welcome. I love the Fiscal Times–highly recommended.</p>
<p>Ok. I added the fiscal times link to my ipad.</p>
<p>The longer American Interest article, cited within the link, is definitely worth a read, also:</p>
<p>“The most important part of the college bubble storythe one we will soon be hearing much more aboutconcerns the impending financial collapse of numerous private colleges and universities and the likely shrinkage of many public ones. And when that bubble bursts, it will end a system of higher education that, for all of its history, has been steeped in a culture of exclusivity. Then well see the birth of something entirely new as we accept one central and unavoidable fact: The college classroom is about to go virtual.”</p>
<p>[The</a> End of the University as We Know It - Nathan Harden - The American Interest Magazine](<a href=“http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1352]The”>http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1352)</p>
<p>interesting article. Also goes to the heart of the staggering inconsistency in the fact that in a time when knowledge is more available than ever a college degree is so ridiculously expensive.</p>
<p>Interesting to note that 36 college presidents earn 1 million a piece. If we had any reason to question the reason for the irrational increase in allegedly nonprofit education.</p>
<p>Gladiatorbird, A friend of mine works for IBM and he has been saying the virtual classroom is going to take over education…</p>
<p>That is another great link. </p>
<p>You are two for two. :)</p>
<p>It’s thrilling to see how the web can change the fundamental way society works through projects like OpenCourseWare, Coursera, and now edX.</p>
<p>Dstark, hmm maybe someone who works for IBM is not unbiased about virtual education. Until online courses solve issues of cheating, they are not going to take over.</p>
<p>This has been discussed before on CC - <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/1433082-end-university-we-know.html?highlight=online+classes[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/1433082-end-university-we-know.html?highlight=online+classes</a></p>
<p>One example they used was Carleton and St. Olaf–neither of those schools are at risk for going belly up. Combining resources just makes sense. The schools are a mile apart, they get discounts for combining services like payroll, etc. It’s a smart financial move for both schools. I think a lot of this is overblown. Most of these colleges have survived through a lot of ups and downs in the economy, many of those downs way worse then what we are experiencing now. With record enrollments and applications, I’m not worried. Sure, you will see some of the “Joe’s College for Basketweaving” type schools go belly up and I think if the feds tighten the reins on the for-profit schools like they are discussing, many of those will disappear but the “real” college that have been around for 100 years are really not at risk.</p>
<p>I’m always looking for thought-provoking articles about higher education. Thank you so much for sharing this.</p>
<p>Kayf, the IBM guy doesn’t care. He’s old. :
He just thinks virtual education is more efficient and learning from the best teachers in the world makes sense. </p>
<p>He wouod agree with both links.</p>
<p>The top colleges are not in danger. However, the shifts in the high school age population is a threat in some parts of the country. One small university in Pennsylvania just announced 35 layoffs because of declining enrollment, and another one cut their tuition to try to avoid more decreases.</p>
<p>The sad thing is: if people talk openly about certain colleges being at financial risk, it would be a self-fulfilling prophesy. That information would make new students avoid those colleges, and they could go belly-up.</p>
<p>I thought it was interesting that one college in Virginia that failed was taken over by the Jehovah’s Witnesses, who now have their own university. Another college in the midwest was taken over by a for-profit, that then used that college’s existing multi-year accredition to run a diploma mill.</p>
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<p>I don’t think St. Olaf or Carleton will go belly up but combining resources is a way to proactively deal with the changing higher education mode. I don’t see this move in education having anything to do with the recent economic slowness. It is a structural change in how higher education is delivered. It is driven by changing technology and is not as easily to combat as an economic downturn.</p>
<p>That said, these sort of structural changes take a while to get going. Often the people who call the beginnings of these trends are correct in calling the trend but the trend can look very different from the way it was initially envisioned. Take the move to more fuel efficient cars. The early trendsetters were predicting that everyone would be driving tiny little cars. There was a recognition in the 1970s that fuel efficiency would be increasingly important. The initial call was for tinier and tinier cars. Hybrids and electric cars were not envisioned by those early forecasters.</p>
<p>So while I think that this is a technological change that will affect colleges in the future, I do think that some schools will find a way to adapt in ways we cannot currently envision.</p>
<p>Thanks, mamabear. I’d forgotten that the embedded article from American Interest had been here, as I’d also read it independently.</p>
<p>The article reminds me to get back to my long neglected virtual CMU open learning class, hah!</p>
<p>Agree that the current system is unsustainable in the long term but I am not sure the virtual classes is the complete answer. As supplement classes to cut down cost, yes, but it requires tremendous self motivation. Never underestimate the herd mentality and desire to be with other like minded people to actually get out of bed and do things!</p>
<p>^So true! </p>
<p>Working in relative isolation, with minimal external structure, is tough, as any novelist will attest. Even highly disciplined, internally motivated students can succumb to lack of hard structure. I was taken by surprise by the slo-mo human wreckage in my PH.D. program twenty years ago. Some driven, well-organized grad students went off the rails upon encountering the semi-fluid deadlines, autonomous and long-term nature of the capstone project. More than a few got stuck as dreaded ABDs (‘all but dissertation’). </p>
<p>I imagine that completing a purely virtual degree would be a tough arc for many 18-20 year-old undergrads. Lots of distractions at that age…easy to procrastinate, loose momentum, and drift off course.</p>
<p>^Agree. People discount the many ways in which students actually learn. In my classroom, students sometimes spend time working in groups, discussing problems, trying to explain principles to each other, etc. </p>
<p>In reality, in college relatively little time is spent in the classroom. Students learn the material in a myriad of ways besides just listening to the professor/taking notes/reading the text.</p>
<p>Olaf and Carleton already share some services; Olaf provides phone service for both schools, as I recall, and at a admissions presentation, the Olaf admissions director spoke at length about the financial benefits of commingling their business interests.</p>
<p>It’s worth checking the Moody’s Investors ratings online for a shortlisted school; I recall seeing plenty of schools with Baa ratings and/or “negative” trending. Grinnell’s impressive “Aaa-stable” rating is not common.</p>