Dad- I understand what she has said about leaving the state, but I would keep Case on the Dad’s list. It’s early in the hunt. Case has a new performance venue and might be a little less competitive in the theater area as well as proximity to Playhouse Square. Also strong social work school, great merit aid. On the policy side, it is the road less taken, but my daughter has had many opportunities as a result. Might be a good match school and a great school to visit to get started. As they approach their senior year, some do change their minds about how far away they want to be. Mine did not, but she wishes she could move Case closer to home for easier visiting 
re: the NESCACs and other small LACs like Carleton. For a person who potentially wants to be a theatre major, you want to find out how many (and what type) of productions are typically produced in a year and if there will be adequate performance opportunities. For someone who wants to do musical theatre, many of the smaller LACS seem to focus more on straight theatre with only occasional musical theatre productions. Also, how many faculty are there. If there are only two full time professors and your D doesn’t click with one of them, that can be a long 4 years. How often are courses taught and what are they like - are they hands-on acting, directing, voice, movement classes or are they more dramaturgy, theatre history, dramatic literature? And what is the student interested in more?
My D dropped Carleton off her list when a regional rep admitted that the prior year there were only 2 theatre majors. He did say that many more people participate in productions and those majors get a lot of attention and help finding internships in Minneapolis (I have heard great theatre town) but for my D that didn’t seem like enough of a critical mass of students serious about theatre. She dropped Bowdoin off the list when she found out that theatre was part of the English department and wasn’t a major itself – just seemed like not enough of an emphasis on theatre as a discipline unto itself for her. YMMV and probably aspiring theatre major would be highly coveted at colleges with smaller theatre departments vs. at Vassar or Wesleyan where applicants interested in theatre are likely a dime a dozen…could be an extra “hook” for admittance at highly selective colleges that aren’t as well known for the arts.
Thought Bowdoin was too rural, but liked Williams?
And Cornell. Go figure
Williamstown has the advantage of really first-rate summer theater, with some extension into spring and fall, two pretty exciting art museums, and an increasingly vibrant NYC-oriented tourist economy. For an isolated rural place, it has some advantages over Brunswick ME.
Exhibit 1 to “Can You Go To Williams And Succeed In Theater?”: Stephen Sondheim. (Of course, it helped a bit that his father had made a lifelong buddy at summer camp with the improbable name Oscar Greeley Clendenning Hammerstein II.) Also: Elia Kazan, A.R. Gurney, Frederic Wiseman, John Sayles.