<p>WarblersRule's data is helpful, because those links at least give combined SAT scores. I think (based on my limited experience of 1) that a student with solid SATs, a top 5% class rank, and a high GPA (straight As or near so in a rigorous curriculum) has a much better than 1 in 4 chance of being accepted at any of the most selective universities in the country - with the big exceptions of HYPS, probably MIT and Caltech, with those universities looking for hooks (whatever that may be) or in the case of M and Caltech demonstrated strength in science and math.</p>
<p>Now before I get shot down or dismissed as just stupid - I didn't say that this hypothetical student would get into all the schools s/he applied to, or even into the one that s/he really wants to attend. The uncertainty is still there, even if the chances are 50-50 (which I think is a reasonable, conservative estimate for my hypothetical student). In that 50% who aren't admitted, we will find students with suspensions, those with one or two poor grades, those who have not chosen lists wisely, those from overrepresented areas of the country (sorry guys, I can build a case for geography being a powerful hook for the otherwise unhook-ed), those who are admitted to all but one school seemingly selected at random, and, unfortunately a rare few who strike out altogether. That is why the safeties are the most important schools on the list.</p>
<p>ADDed: Take that stat of 47% of vals admitted to Penn - that is close to my 50% rule without knowing anything else about those students. Think of all the different ranking/grading situations we have read about on this forum, with some schools have 20 vals, and some schools never having a val from the most rigorous curriculum, because there is no weighting of classes. Do you think that it is possible that if your student is val at a school where that status "means something", that his chances at Penn are 50-50? My guess is that a val with a rigorous courseload has a better than 50-50 chance (but not 100%, Curmudge, remember those safeties and hold them close to your heart) at Penn, but predicting who will be the 1 in 4 to fall short requires much more knowledge of the process than we will ever have.</p>