@nrtlax33 – I can’t tell you about “chances” but I know that my daughter did not come from an academically competitive high school (though competitive in other ways - it was an arts magnet, so definitely producing students with excellent training in music, dance, theater, etc. But, for example, the school did not offer a single AP in STEM, unless you count Psychology as a science. (students could take AP calc online if they wanted, but no one ever passed so it was understood to be a waste of effort). In fact, I think a major reason my daughter’s math scores were so weak is that the math teachers at her school were horrible.
She did find that her peers at college generally had better preparation in high school. And yes, better test scores. But they weren’t better students. She had better grades than most, pretty much from the start. Graduated summa cum laude, phi beta kappa.
Here’s the part that I think you are missing: it wasn’t an accident that she was accepted at schools that seemed like super-reaches on paper. Because the schools had other info - they had her transcripts, her essays, the LOR’s – and the overall picture of what she had done in high school that was different from the norm.
You think this is fluke – but then there is the post from @Poplicola - http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/21591847/#Comment_21591847 – Chicago class of 2012, SAT reading below the 10% level, – phi beta kappa, followed by combined PhD/MD at a top 5 med school
This is not about broad statistical correlations – this is about college classes that are composed of individuals, and how the colleges go about selecting those individuals.
When a college pulls a high-performing kid from a high-performing high school, they are usually getting a kid who is a product of their environment. Yes, the kid has done well- but that kid typically has done what parents and teacher expected from them.
But the kids that Chicago is looking for from the less competitive high schools are kids who have risen above or apart from the rest – they probably show qualities of leadership or independence or initiative that signal that they have reserves and potential above and beyond what others have instilled in them. These are students who have shown themselves capable in other ways of rising to a challenge, or creating their own challenges.
And I think that may be a reason that many end up doing quite well in college. Because of who they are and what they can accomplish is not a function of what has been given to them, but what they are able to do for themselves.
And that’s why a school like Chicago wants those sorts of students. They aren’t “similar” to others from their high school – they are students who have distinguished themselves in one way or another.
And I think Chicago looked at its student body and its admission pool and decided it wasn’t getting the number of applications from those type of students that it wanted-- and figured out that many were being deterred by the SAT requirement. Precisely because Chicago probably still wants students like Poplicola. Hence the decision to go test-optional.