@Firefly1973 , @NWExpat, @Suave123:
There is a similar conversation going on over at the National Merit ‘chatter thread’, so head over there as well if haven’t yet. My D is in a similar situation: she’s right at the bubble for our state SI, so I’m following this very closely.
Obviously, no one can say for certain, but Art Sawyer at Compass Prep is the expert, and has said in several comments that he thinks that the SIs may go down in several states. (Google ‘Compass Prep National Merit 2021’ to find his page and scroll ALL the way down to read all his comments.) I read somewhere (can’t remember where now) that preliminary state-level data will be released in Feb., so I don’t think we’ll know anything more until then. Fingers crossed for now.