@intparent how about you suggest some of the better ones…
I do think that Bucknell, Lehigh, F&M are different though then the tip top schools, as the ED admit rate is near 60%. That does mean you are getting a pretty good boost at ED and that they value kids who want to be there. That’s a bit different than at a Williams or a Bowdoin etc.
I haven’t found a book that is particularly good. I just know the ones that were touted in the couple of books I looked seem perfectly suitable for a school ranked below the top 100… but nothing you would want to send to a top school.
Well I would recommend, “ On writing the college application essay”. DD though it useful for her UChicago application where she attends.
I found the essays on JHU’s admissions website to be the most helpful.
“assuming that the kid with a 34 ACT somehow has better chances anywhere than a kid with a 31 ACT”
That’s actually true, for colleges that publish sat or act scores by acceptance rates, the higher the score, the higher the acceptance rate. This is from Brown’s class of 2020 profile:
Critical reading score, acceptance rate:
800 23%
750 - 790 15
700 - 740 10
650 - 690 7
600 - 640 5
550 - 590 4
< 550 1
A 650 t0 750 in CR doubles your chances, that’s pretty good correlation, though of course not causation.
The problem is that you are making the underline assumption that the students within each score range are similar in all respects but for differences in test scores. That is, you are assuming that students with 800 reading scores have similar GPA’s, class rank and academic proviles as students at the lower score point range --so that there is a direct correspondence between test score and admission rate.
But it is likely that higher test scores are also correlated with higher qualifications across the board.
Do you really think you could read that to mean that a student with a 3.6 UW GPA and an 800 SAT score has better chances of admission than a student with a 4.0 UW and 700?
“That is, you are assuming that students with 800 reading scores have similar GPA’s, class rank and academic proviles as students at the lower score point range --so that there is a direct correspondence between test score and admission rate.”
I don’t think I am making that assumption, I think it’s the colleges that do by publishing that information. GPAs are not created equal, a 3.6 with APs is better than a 4.0 with not many honors or AP classes. So yes, the 800 would have a better chance. When a college publishes sat and act info by acceptance rate, they’re saying there is a correlation between the two, it’s one of their messages.
This seems to be a popular sentiment around these forums, but an analogous one suggesting that students seeking big merit scholarships look at schools like Tuskegee and Prairie View A&M is not that popular here.
The problem with your argument is that Brown has also publishes data showing acceptance rates by other factors, such as class rank --from the page you cited but didn’t bother to link to (https://www.brown.edu/admission/undergraduate/facts) – acceptance rate for class valedictorian was 19%,
So lets say that a student with a reading score of 680 is also their class valedictorian. Is that a 19% “chance”? or a 7% “chance”?
How many students who were class valedictorians also have a Reading score of 800?
Do you think that’s more or less than the number of class valedictorians with score in the 650-690 range?
How many students who had Reading scores of 800 were also their class valedictorian?
Do you think that’s more or less than the number of 800 scorers who were neither valedictorian nor salutatorian, but merely in the top 10% of their class?
I think all these questions are more the exception than the typical student, that’s why colleges publish the information, the 36 act will be 1 or 2 in their class, or at worst top 5%. If Brown or Stanford were getting a lot of applicants with 650/valedictorian, they wouldn’t be publishing this kind of info, as it would confuse more than clarify, which I assume is something these colleges don’t want to do.
And in the HS I went to and the bay area students I know now, very few, get a 650 and is a salutatorian. Maybe a couple here or there.
Do you understand what the term “confounding variable” means?
Many unhooked applicants in our area high school apply ED and get accepted to Lehigh, Bucknell, FandM etc. I live in a mostly white suburb in NJ. Less crazy than other suburbs around here. Our Asian American population is about 8% . LACs not popular with this group in general. Maybe they should be sought out more. My kid may be interested, but he is not sure.
Exactly correlation is not causation. My kid with higher scores also had higher grades and a higher rank and took more APs including post AP math. Younger son on the other hand probably had better letters and essays.
Not in my kid’s case, or several others I know.
“Do you understand what the term “confounding variable” means?”
I do, which variable are you saying is the confounding one, and which are you say are the relevant ones?
“Exactly correlation is not causation.”
I believe I noted that earlier, there’s a correlation between test scores and acceptance rate but not necessarily a causation, at least for selective universities.
I agree with many of the posts that say test scores are not the most important of a factor in school admission. My DS graduated with a handful of kids with a 35 ACT and top 10 rank in a class of around 470. The students did get in schools like UVA, William and Mary and others on that level but were waitlisted at schools like Carnegie mellon, Cornell and Brown. They had taken around 15 AP classes with mostly 4’s and 5’s on their AP exams. They all had leadership and good EC’s. On the other hand my other child was at the 25% ACT range for most of the schools she got in but in the top 10 in a class of 500, 15 AP’s, A lot of leadership in one area and essay showed her passion in that area. She was accepted in to UVA, William and Mary and Washington and Lee to name a few. I have seen posts of students with 34 and 35 ACT’s saying they can’t believe they did not get into these schools. My kids are not URM, athletes or any other hook. I truly think that schools want to admit a student who has excelled in compared to their peers and has shown some passion in an area and not just taken on a lot of leadership positions because it will look good. She just did activities that she loved in school and didn’t worry about building a resume for college admission. If a student is at least around the 25% for test scores but has done well in school I would say to apply, you never know.
I did attend an admission session at Princeton and someone asked if their student with a 34 ACT should retake the test to try to get a 36 and the admission officer said no, spend the time doing something you have a passion for I have read many post of students this year with SAT’s in high 1500’s and complaining they didn’t get in many schools and I believe they may not have spent as much time on their applications or essays because they thought they were a sure thing to get into a school based on test scores.
I feel bad for the kids who have yet to find their “passion”. Heck, I think I am still looking. Both my kids are really solid human beings, play three sports but won’t be college athletes (probably because they wanted to play three sports and not specialize), taken hard classes (lot of AP) and done very well (3.8-3.9 UW GPA) have good but not great test scores (1460-1520), have had jobs and leadership in ECs but nothing exceptional. They have great character and have made the most of HS (expect very good recs), but they have not honed in on one thing. They are well rounded. I think they have had great HS experiences and I would not change anything, but its too bad it does not translate into something more attractive to top colleges. I get it…just not enough spots. Again, I have no doubt that they will end up at a great school and make the most of their opportunity, but it kind of makes me sad. The motivation for my original post was just to set proper expectations. I think its hard for these students( and parents!) to get a realistic picture of the actual odds of admission. Its been a good discussion!
I agree with the need to package/target a school based on interests. I have walked two children through this process now. The first, had a 4.2ish, mostly 5s on APs, pinpointed ECs on creative writing, high SAT Verbal/Writing and very low math scores. Basement low. No hooks other than potential full pay and gender. She was always in the top quartile on the verbal and bottom quartile on the math. So it was hard to create a list. We looked for schools with open curriculum, limited math requirements, strengths in English and schools that might benefit from her high verbal test scores (LACs with lower reported verbal scores). This strategy worked for her and she had a wide range of options and costs. She landed at a college where her math SAT scores are in the lower quartile. However, the college does not require math for a degree. In two years she has not so much as sniffed a math or science class.
My second daughter is a musician but a reluctant student. Or at least has been until this last year. Middle 50% on the ACT. 3.0 GPA in academics. 3.2ish thanks to music. 3.5 UC thanks to Freshman year not counting and UCs counting all of her choir classes. When we made a list based on academics, I felt down for her. However, we advised her not to test prep and she spent the extra time working on music instead. She pursued her passion rather than trying to improve test scores. Her music opened the door to colleges she would not have gotten into based on academics alone.
Neither of my kids were URM, legacy, first gen, athlete but they applied and packed to their strengths. Sometimes, it seems like the advice is to be perfect across the board and that seems, well, a little inauthentic. Kids should spend more time thinking “why do I want to study here” rather than do my stats measure up. Yes, of course, you have to look at the stats. But the obsessing should be towards the college/program. Is it a good fit? Do they have something I want? Do I offer something they want? Will I be successful here? Will this be a good home for me for the next four years? None of these important questions can be answered by any ranking service. And I think attention and care to these questions can make the application stand out.
Stats for ORM unhooked kids are as follows: ORM kids have an advantage in admissions to highly selelctive colleges, in most cases. For example, at Harvard, white and Asian kids made up roughly 70% of last year’s class. ORM unhooked kids are doing just fine.