<p>This year, many schools have had record applicant and record admit rates. My question is, is the admit rate going to continue to lower, or is this year going to be as bad as it gets? My reasoning seems to tell me it's only going to get worse, unless schools accept more students.</p>
<p>Here's my FAQ on college application demographics: </p>
<p>DEMOGRAPHICS </p>
<p>Population trends in the United States are not the only issue influencing the competitiveness of college admission here. The children already born show us what the expected number of high school students are in various years, but the number of high school students in the United States, which is expected to begin declining in a few years, isn't the whole story. </p>
<p>First of all, if more students who begin high school go on to college, there will be more applicants to college even with a declining number of high school students. And that is the trend in the United States and worldwide. </p>
<p>Second, colleges in the United States accept applications from all over the world, so it is quite possible that demographic trends in the United States will not be the main influence on how many students apply to college. The cohorts of high-school-age students are still increasing in size in some countries (NOT most of Europe). </p>
<p>Third, even if the number of applicants to colleges overall stays the same, or even declines, the number of applicants to the most competitive colleges may still increase. The trend around the world is a "flight to quality" of students trying to get into the best college they can in increasing numbers, and increasing their consensus about which colleges to put at the top of their application lists. I do not expect college admission to be any easier for my youngest child than for my oldest child, even though she is part of a smaller birth cohort in the United States. </p>
<p>And now I would add to this that at the very most selective colleges that have just announced new financial aid plans, next year's (and the following year's) crush of applicants will be larger than ever. When colleges that are already acknowledged to be great colleges start reducing their net cost down to what the majority of families in the United States can afford, those colleges will receive more applications from all parts of the United States, and very likely from all over the world. </p>
<p>The Austin American-Statesman newspaper in Texas published news about these trends in an article about a particular applicant in April 2008. </p>
<p>Perfect</a> college entrance exam scores don't help student who dreamt of the Ivy Leagues </p>
<p>The Economist magazine published a brief article about these trends in April 2008. </p>
<p>This coming year - the class of 2009 - is supposed to be the worst of all because we're the peak of the baby boomlets (children of baby boomers). Those trends of increasing percentages applying to college will continue AND we'll have the largest graduating class ever.</p>
<p>Well, someone needs to look up numbers because I've been told 2008 is the largest graduating class, BUT admissions will keep getting harder because more and more people are applying to college/admission frenzy is increasing.</p>
<p>I vaguely recall a graph saying class of 2008 was the peak and it was downward from there...</p>
<p>I believe 2009 is expected to be the largest graduating class (keep in mind that graduating class is different than total population).</p>
<p>Why would it stop though, isn't population and thus total grads. continuing to increase?</p>
<p>I remember reading a SJ Mercury News article a couple of months back saying class of 08/12 was the peak year in terms of number of applicants to college, and that the applicant pool would be shrinking at least the next decade...does anyone have a link?</p>
<p>The number of HS grads in 08 vs 09 are so close that other factors will make a greater difference. tokenadult's post identifies the major factors. In addition, one thing is certain: the number of seats at the most competitive colleges is increasing only slightly, if at all.</p>
<p>For the class of 2012, here are the year-over-year increases at a few schools.</p>
<p>+20% Chicago
+19% Harvard
+11% Dartmouth
+7% Northwestern
+6% Princeton
+4.5% UVA</p>
<p>Even UVA's 4.5% is much larger that the increase in HS grads from 07 to 08.</p>
<p>It'll just keep getting harder from here :) It just means that when you succeed it'll be more amazing!</p>
<p>state by state projections, published March 2008.</p>
<p>Cool link. Thanks for sharing.</p>
<p>Best information on this I have seen yet, standrews.
I can see LACs in the Northeast and Midwest beyond the top handful (5 or 6) be increasingly hard pressed to keep student quality up over the next 7 or 8 years, given the decline in high school graduates in their geographic application base, and the even steeper decline in affluent white students- their academic and financial bread and butter.</p>
<p>darn i'm 2009</p>
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<p>I believe 2009 is supposed to be the peak year.
but keep in mind that top colleges are working on increasing their
enrollments. i know specifically that Princeton, Rice, and UChicago have
all announced plans to gradually increase enrollment.</p>
<p>"In 2008-09, however, our country will begin a
protracted period during which its production of high school graduates is expected to stagnate, assuming existing patterns persist." (see Token Adult's post --this was a quote in her article)</p>
<p>Narcissa, you are in luck that you are entering college in 2009. It is the kids entering college this fall 2008 that are up against all the competition!</p>
<p>Dartmouth was actually up 16.6% this year when all apps were counted. The 11% number in the NYT was incorrect. </p>
<p>TheDartmouth.com</a> | College admits 2,190 applicants</p>
<p>
[quote]
i know specifically that Princeton, Rice, and UChicago have
all announced plans to gradually increase enrollment
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Don't put hope in that. It will benefit only today's elementary students.</p>
<p>^ yes! and good luck to later classes!</p>