<p>I don't think the admission processes at ivies are random at all...they only seem so because we have only half of the picture...SATs and APs are the factors with the least differentiating possibilities...the key to getting into ivies I believe is "uniqueness" plain simple...I think if you read all the essays of those who get in and those who don't...you wouldn't call it random at all.</p>
<p>college admissions are only "random" in tiers. In that, for harvard, everyone below certain scores is almost guaranteed to get rejected (apart from athletics and special activities recruitment), but of the top 10% of the applicants, it cud be called random. Then yes, essays and things like that matter, it just depends on the reader, if your essays/application as a whole "clicks" with the reader.</p>
<p>The underlying concept is sound to the extent that there is an element of randomness in the selection process. However, even if you grant a generous 20% success rate for the applicant, the element of randomness is a much lower component of that success rate. I think the calculation would be more like 20 x 15 x 5, etc. i.e, if H, Y and P have all rejected the applicant then the odds of that applicant getting into S are much lower than 20.</p>
<p>Someone could (edit: I said could, not should!) do a study by examining what fraction of H students who applied to Y also got into Y, etc etc. Those guys who did the "revealed preference rankings" probably already have the raw data for such a study.</p>
<p>I had done some analysis few years back and found out that the overlap is as follows:
legend:
A - the student
HYPMSC - the schools</p>
<ol>
<li>If A gets into H then there is more than 60% chance that A gets into Y; more than 50% chance A gets into S; more that 50% chance A gets into Princiton; more than 30% chance A gets into M; more than 20% chance A gets into C</li>
<li>If A gets into S then there is more than 40% chance A gets into H or Y; more than 50% chance A gets into P; more than 60% chance A gets into M; more than 40% chance A gets into C.</li>
<li>If A gets into M then there is more than 70% chance A gets into S; more than 60% chance A gets into C; more than 40% chance A gets into P; more than 30% chance A gets into H or Y.</li>
</ol>
<p>I didn't do other schools.</p>
<p>That OP equation has no logic behind it.</p>
<p>There is some logic indeed. So if you have x probability to get into Harvard then there is > 0.6x that you will get into Y; > 0.5x that you get into S or P and so on.
So if some one is really good and have a 20% probability at getting into Harvard then the logic is</p>
<p>P(!H) = 0.8
P(!Y) = 0.88
P(!S) = 0.9
P(!P) = 0.9
P(!M) = 0.94
P(!C) = 0.96</p>
<p>P(H|Y|P|S|M|C) = 1 - P(!H&!Y&!P&!S&!M&!C) = 1 - 0.51 = 0.49 = 49%</p>
<p>Except the calculation you need to do is:</p>
<p>If A does NOT get into H, then what is the chance A gets into YPMSC; if A does NOT get into H or Y, what is the chance A gets into PMSC, etc. </p>
<p>I think that is harder to calculate because most A's don't get into HYPMSC!</p>
<p>I guess one way would be to poll current HYPMSC students and find out if indeed there were some who applied to HYPMSC and only got into one of those schools.</p>
<p>Let us create a hypothetical student A with > 20% probability to get into Harvard.</p>
<p>Student A:</p>
<ol>
<li>Academics: AP National Scholar after the Junior year (1 in ~700 in US) shows considerable rigorous to the curriculumn has taken it as part of school subjects indicating a competitive school (public or private).
School doesn't rank but GPA is > 3.9 (UW) </li>
<li>SAT1 : 2380 (800/790/790) 1 in ~ 500 in single sitting </li>
<li>SATII: 2350 (790/780/780) 1 in ~ 1000 </li>
<li>ECs:
No Hooks - No US Olympiad, Intel, Siemens
but competitive local, regional awards, broad range of activites.</li>
</ol>
<p>So if such a student exists I think the student will have > 49% chances to get into 1 of HYPMSC.</p>
<p>Something about the math/logic there doesn't seem right...</p>
<p>P(!H) = 0.8
P(!Y) = 0.88
P(!S) = 0.9
P(!P) = 0.9
P(!M) = 0.94
P(!C) = 0.96</p>
<p>If I'm reading that right, your saying its easier to get into Harvard than YMPSC??? A 4% chance at C and a 20% chance at H???... that doesn't seem right</p>
<p>I hope you're right, though - I almost exactly match your hypothetical student and I would love a 49% chance of getting into one (I hope it's M)!</p>
<p>Whoever said that college applications are non-mathematical is right on. There's no math to it, sorry. College applications are about personality and character AS WELL as grades and scores. At that level, every (viable) student is likely to be well-qualified to go to that school. Essays, abilities, and personality traits cut the border between the accepted and rejected. Tell your friend he is making a big mistake by assuming such rubbish- it displays an arrogance that, if shown in his application, would likely earn him a 0% chance of acceptance.</p>
<p>And let's face it, an "Ivy League College" is not the be all and end all of the academic world. It's not as though Harvard, Princeton, and Yale are the only superb universities out there. Sure, they've got a name, but there are a lot of schools that have just as much substance in their academic quality. It seems frivolous to calculate one's chances at getting into such a highly selective (and, in my arguable opinion) overpriced institution. </p>
<p>Go ahead and flame me for this post.</p>
<p>tapedDuck: I think those calculations assume that everyone who is admitted to Y would also be admitted to H, which is of course not true. OTOH, I think it is a mistake to assume that there is no element of randomness in the selection process and it stands to reason that the more places you apply to the more your chances are of being accepted by one of them.</p>
<p>ParentofIvyHope -- how did you arrive at those results? Are they based off of observations collected over the years (if so, I congratulate you for your diligence and bookkeeping abilities), or some arcane secrets of statistics that have yet to be spilled on this thread?</p>
<p>lobgent: The probability of a Harvard Student to get into a YPSMC is based on the data collected over the 4 years prior to my D started going to high school for more than 20 private schools in bay area. So there should be some meat in it.</p>
<p>It is not necessarily saying that it is difficult to get into M than to H.
But what I found that admission to M and C is more number oriented than H and Y. So there are lot of student who can get into H and Y but have a very low chances to get into M and C. It is true the other way too.</p>
<p>For example H and Y might accept a student with SAT1 math of 700 but the chances of such student getting acceptance from M and C is rare.
Similarly it is possible for a student with 700 on CR to get into M and C but is difficult for such a student to get into H and Y.</p>
<p>There is no randomness in college admisisons, people need to realize that finally.</p>
<p>Every rejection or acceptance has a die-hard reason behind it that was debated and successfully accepted by the members of the committee - the only 'true' randomness is perhaps running out of spaces in the class, and thats really the only natural variation you can account for. Otherwise, the 2400 4.0'er wasnt rejected 'randomly' in a 'crapshoot' - he was rejected for a direct reason, because if there was no reason to reject him (no personality probs, no ec lacking, no red flags, etc.) then he has a 100% chance of admission, without taking into account natural class size variation.</p>
<p>Thus, its not mathematical, but literally holistic. But the applicant who meets the 'true' criteria of the admitted elite student will always get in, its as simple as that. If someone didnt get in somewhere, they obviously had a problem with their application that caused the committe members to think he wasnt qualified, looking beyond all their nice talk about "ooo so many ppl r qualified".</p>
<p>ROFL. that's the same thing as saying if I flip two coins, it will definitely land on each side once.</p>
<p>Independent factors = 33% each time you apply.</p>
<p>lol i do'nt think so</p>
<p>if you flip two coins, each independently has a 50% chance that you will get a declared side..you can' just add together the percentages for two separate coins and say that its 100% you'll get your picked side.</p>
<p>This business is complete and total crap, because you do not know the EXACT(or even close to it) probability of being accepted. This applicant could have one bad thing that would reject him from all of those schools(say, a 3 on an AP, or a C+ in a class). Keep in mind that all of these schools look for similar things(obviously with a few exceptions), so if you can't get into one, odds are you can't get into the others.</p>
<p>The only thing this thread has demonstrated to me is how many people do not understand the concepts of probability and randomness. Really depressing.</p>
<p>Infinite_Truth, you summed it up better than anyone else has on this thread.</p>