Also, you have to realize that what is not a “serious contender” for one school may be a VERY serious contender for another. For example, NYU-Steinhardt loves its legit singers; TSU loves its belters. CMU loves commercial looking kids; Pace loves edgy looking kids. In addition, you might be the best 5’6" blonde soprano ingenue, but if a school already has two 5’6" blonde soprano ingenues, they are not going to take you. Assuming you have talent, chances are, some program is going to want you. So looking at the numbers is kind of a waste of time. Unless you have a crystal ball, or unless you’re related to/BFFs with the head of a program, you have NO idea what they are looking for this particular year. Find schools you like, and AUDITION. You never know. My D’s top choice school was one we thought she would NEVER get into b/c of the odds, and b/c of what we thought they were looking for. She’s a rising junior there now, happy as a clam. JUST GO FOR IT. You can’t win if you don’t play.
Amen, monkey13!!
I agree with the last 2 posts. Moreover, odds up to only 20%, which it seems like the great majority programs have, are challenging odds. So some are 2%, some are 8%, and some are 20%. All are difficult. Besides, admission at any program depends on so many things, not just talent: looks, type, what the program needs in the next years, how old or young one looks, how edgy one is or not, what quality of voice that particular program values at that time, etc. It’s not just a odds/numbers game in that way, either. One year, one person’s odds at one school might be higher than that individual’s chances the following year at that same program.
I think we can all agree that this is darn hard no matter what nitpicky analyzing of percentages and odds we do! Hurray for all of the people who are aware of the odds, yet go for it, anyway, and for all of the people who support and help them!
Oops! Somehow, I didn’t see the post by @monkey13 before posting #22, so the gist of most of what I said was the same.
One thing always comes to mind during discussions of the long odds for kids applying to college MT programs. When D was applying 4 years ago we heard one school head explaining why there are fewer MT slots than openings for med school, saying “the world always needs more doctors but there are already too many actors”.
When I think about it, our city (the 4th or 5th largest arts market in the country) truly supports only 3-5 actresses ranging in ages from 22-35 with relatively steady paid work. Wow!! I suspect the odds of making over $500k per year in pro sports in our city are probably ~100x greater than the odds of making over $50k per year as an actor.
Sobering, I know, but worth considering when we fret about how competitive getting into schools is.
None of this is to say our kids shouldn’t study MT in college, since we all know there are many benefits to be carried into whatever they do in the future, but in my opinion no one should pursue this field unless they are fully comfortable with long odds.
A director of a top MT Program was giving a seminar on auditioning and he said everyone in MT needs to plan on working in film and tv and commercials, there is simply not enough work to earn a living in mt.
The advice to plan to diversify is spot on, but I’m not sure every MT is built for film. Although maybe this explains what I see as a trend toward ever-thinner stage actresses (possibly my imagination?).
While it is VERY difficult to find ongoing work on stage in musicals, I don’t think that means an actor necessarily has to do film/TV/commercials (my kid doesn’t, for example). A MT artist is also a singer, and could also pursue work as a music artist, beyond the MT genre (so many of my D’s peers with BFAs in MT are doing this). And of course, there are a million (well, maybe not that many!) other things in the fields of theater and music one can do in addition to acting on stage in musicals. My D is an actor on stage in musicals, but doesn’t rely solely in being cast in those and is heavily involved in other aspects of theater and music too. All her work is in these fields, even if she is not performing consecutively every month of the year in a musical (few people do that actually). This “other work” includes a lot of performing, but just not always in a musical.
The way all of this post-college perspective relates to the original comments about admittance rates is threefold.
First, as applicants get their heads around the low odds of getting an MT slot in any specific program, it’s worth considering that those same odds may stay with you throughout an MT career.
Second, in spite of the difficulty of getting a slot, be selective about only applying to programs that will help you build the specific MT skills YOU need to increase your chances of working and/or the experiences you really want from your college years. Every program is probably good for someone, but not every program would be good for you.
Third, as you consider various programs, look long and hard at how they will help you not only as an MT, but also at how they may help you diversify your skills - for example with training for film, TV, composing, comedy, directing, business… whatever.
The fact that a commodity is scarce doesn’t mean it’s useful to you. 
Great advice @MomCares !!
@MomCares Yes! So if you are very musical, go to a school that will allow you to have experience composing, arranging, or playing an instrument. That could be in the form of actual classes or it can be by setting up a network that allows you to take part in all aspects of music by becoming involved in different projects or groups.
My D enjoyed the business aspect of theatre and entertainment, and knew from when she first began her time at NYU that she wanted to pursue that in addition to performance. So she took a minor in the Business of Entertainment, was president of the student run theatre company and did lots of internships in entertainment that included marketing, branding and pr.
I’ve seen others who have focused on dance and now teach and choreograph.
So rather than being employed in survival jobs outside of their interests, graduates can pursue these skills and still be involved in theatre without feeling that they have settled for plan B.
All of the talk over admit rates and yields and which schools take which kids is an annual pastime around here 
but the best advice still is to have a balanced, diverse list of schools that includes academic + artistic + financial reaches, fits and safeties. My mom would say “ya gotta be in it to win it” so if you love the sound of that Otterbein program, buy all means, audition! Someone has to get those spots! Don’t be afraid of small numbers if the program sounds right for you / your child.
“Whether you think you can, or you can’t. Either way, you’re right” Quote by famous person. Go for it.
A man is in church solemnly praying to God, “Lord, I need your help. My business is failing and my wife is not happy with me. Please change my fortunes, and I will be your loyal servant forever.”
A month later the man returns as prays, “Lord, it’s only gotten worse. The sheriff chain-locked my door for failure to pay taxes, and my wife has left me. I need you now more than ever. If only I could come across some money I know I can turn all this around. Please help me, Lord.”
A few weeks go by and the man is in church beaten and desolate. “Lord, the unthinkable has happened: my dog ran away and my pickup is broke. In all these years I haven’t asked you for much. Lord, why have you forsaken me?”
Just then as if the roof was removed from the church, the clouds part and a beautiful light appears and the Lord speaks [in your best James Earl Jones voice], “JACOB, MEET ME HALFWAY ON THIS ONE. GO BUY A LOTTERY TICKET.”
I thought the punch line would be “Son, I have given you everything you need to write a country-western hit. Go forth and make “art”.”
It’s the same at Ivies. So many kids throw their hat in the ring thinking, “It could be me!” but they haven’t any realistic chance. It makes it look as though there is mind numbing competition but really, I’d guess only half were qualified, and fewer than that had a real chance given geographic, racial, affirmative actions quotas, public/private school balance. So they are competitive schools but not for the number of applicants alone.
There is a really eye opening NPR podcast that has a reporter spend a day at Amherst in the final admissions meetings. It could make you angry but it is the reality.
I have a kid at a top 20 university (Vanderbilt) who has an acceptance rate that hovers around 12% - lower than some of the Ancient 8.
Her acceptance to Vandy was a literal walk in the park next to my MT kid getting a BFA program acceptance.
No joke.
Someone my kid knows who is planning to do theatre or MT said they were planning to apply to a few reach schools, a few easier ones and a few safeties. The reach schools were Brown and Vassar (theatre), the easier ones were CMU, Michigan, Elon (all MT). We tried to explain that the “easier” ones on the list were probably more difficult than the “reach”, but the kid kept telling us how high their gpa, ACT and PSAT scores were so they felt very confident about schools like CMU, etc. The kid’s school counselor had already looked it all up and they would not listen to anyone else
We just saw a local kid who got into Harvard. He is super duper smart but so is everyone else there. He literally applied at the last minute just on a whim and got accepted and has already started there this fall. He is the only person from his state going there out of all the freshmen. He has a lot of leadership activities like youth governor representative and was the president of tons of stuff. I think they just saw a leader in him & tons of go-getting and potential. Just goes to prove you never know. He is not there on any financial need basis either.
@theaterwork … Harvard is need blind like most of the elite schools.
He probably got into Harvard like a lot of MT kids get into their schools … the admission team (or theatre department) is trying to build their own version of a beautiful painting. They saw something in him that he could bring to Harvard … or basically, he was an oboe player who did robotics and was a national qualifier in forensics and they didn’t have one of those in their 2019 class and BOOM there he was! Just like the 5’4 redheaded mezzo belter with killer comedic chops who was the finest tapper that ever tapped - she was just what CMU/Michigan/Elon was looking for this year! (Luckiy for her, the OTHER 5’4 redheaded mezzo belter w/ killer comedic chops who was the original finest tapper that ever tapped just graduated! Woohoo!)
;
Only partially joking on all of it.