Alright, what's the deal with skyrocketing selective college applications?

@Much2learn, some schools do this.

The Ivies and equivalents don’t do a lot of this (though Cornell offers guaranteed transfers as well).

And many publics take in a lot of transfers from CC’s as part of their mission of serving all residents in a state. The UC’s aim for a 40/60 underclassmen/upperclassmen ratio, for instance.

In terms of USNews metrics, the benefits should be obvious.

Even Harvard has its so called Z List. I believe it is for legacy applicants who don’t make the cut. They are told to take a gap year and enrol the following September.

^ True, but it’s a matter of degree, though.
For instance, Harvard awarded 1670 bachelor degrees in 2013-2014 and had 1660 in the 2015 fall freshman class. A handful of the bachelors would be through Harvard Extension School as well.

I understand that students are concerned and they do apply to more schools now than they did probably 5 years ago. But I don’t think kids need to apply to an excessive amount of schools. My kid applied to 12 (2 safeties, 5 matches, 3 reaches, 2 dream schools.) She could have done just as well if she applied to ten. She got accepted to 7, WLed at three, including two reaches. She was denied at the two top 25 colleges, predictably. She was accepted to both safeties, four matches, and one reach.

I firmly believe this is because a lot of research and thought was put into her apps for all her schools. She showed interest in all schools, by visiting, emailing, meeting with reps, or interviewing, or a combination of those options. She performed about as well as we expected. She was also offered merit aid at five of the schools. If a student applies to schools that are right for their stats, presents a good application, and shows interest, I think it is easily possible to get into a nice range of colleges.

I believe that many kids get denied from safety and match schools due to not expressing enough interest. A throughly unscientific survey of kids at our high school seems to support this. Several kids that expressed interest got into or were WLed at colleges in which students with superior stats were denied. True example: Girl A has a total of three AP classes and decent grades and test scores. She got into Uni of Rochester with good merit aid. She was also WLed at William & Mary, and Cornell, which NO ONE, not even herself, can believe. Girl B has superior grades, test scores, and several more APs than Girl A. WLed at Rochester, which she never visited, or expressed any interest whatsoever, and deferred than denied at Cornell, even though she is a legacy. She didn’t interview at Cornell, though she did apply ED. Girl C has spectacular grades and spectacular test scores, as well as a lot of APs. She was accepted at U Roch with less merit than Girl A, and denied outright from Cornell, which she showed zero interest in. This doesn’t really prove anything, but I can’t help but think that Girl A showed clear interest in those colleges while Girls B and C didn’t, and they got worse results regarding Uni of Roch and Cornell.

A big factor around here (northern California) is that top students who in past years would have automatically gone to UCB or UCD, or gone “away” to UCLA can no longer assume that they will get in to those schools. So any top local student who wants one of those UCs still needs a plan B. For a huge number of these kids, plan B includes applying to good quality private and OOS publics.

And honestly, if the UC system wasn’t so impacted, I would probably have never seriously considered any private colleges or OOS universities. It was the overcrowding at UC that led me to look into the viability of other options which in turn led both me and S to realize that an LAC was where he belonged.

Only one poster picked up on a key driver to this phenomenon.

It’s Early Decision. With a yield of 100% on say half the incoming class, regular decision kids panic and flood “elite” schools with RD applications. But as these schools now have only half the slots open, they don’t have to offer admission to many kids…

Boom selectivity is way up as is yield. And applications are boosted as well.

If there was no ED and yields were what they should be, many more kids would get accepted to more schools. And over time they would apply to less schools because the “panic” would be lessened…

Do the math it has a dramatic impact on the numbers…

^^^

Acceptances for RD decrease due to a larger ED class, but may increase if yield decreases on the RD applications. The very top schools can maintain their yields, but I expect it will start dropping quickly after the top 10.

No one has mentioned that state flagships keep admitting more OOS and international students, raising the bar for in-state students.

Raising the in-state bar at the state flagship causes students who would have never even thought about leaving the state before, to have to think about it. They know nothing about admissions and someone tells them to look at US News rankings and cc:. The next thing you know, they are in the rat race.

I am finding the increase in male applicants at St. Olaf quite puzzling. Where did all those male applicants come from. Would love an explanation.

Yeah, @mstee, I’m a guy who works in an analytical, quantitative field, and mistakes can happen. When a result doesn’t pass the “straight-face test”, we dig back into the analysis and try to figure out what went wrong. To my eyes, those St. O numbers appear to fail that test. Seems like it almost has to be an error.