Am I competitive for top colleges? How am I doing so far?

Chance Me / Match Me!
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Hi! I’m currently a high school sophomore. I’m currently very stressed out and anxious about grades/GPA and college, so I want to know how I’m doing so far. Sorry if this ends up being a long read.

For context, I am interested in a wide variety of colleges, but my first-choice college is MIT, and my second-choice is Stanford, so I will likely apply ED/EA to those colleges. I live in California. A few of the colleges I’m interested in are: MIT, Stanford, Cornell, Caltech, Princeton, UC Berkeley, Carnegie Mellon, ETH Zurich, UC Santa Barbara, University of Maryland College Park, University of Waterloo, and University of Michigan Ann Arbor. None of the colleges I’m interested in have an acceptance rate above 55%, which may or may not be problematic.

I currently have a 3.7 unweighted GPA and a 3.9 weighted GPA (from all high school classes, including freshman and non-academic classes). Below are all my classes that I have taken or am registered for (slash indicates semester). For context, I currently attend a public high school, but I also take courses at an online private high school.

Freshman Year (9 classes):
French II
Health / Global Studies
Chemistry
AP Calculus BC
Freshman English
Freshman PE
Methodology of Science - Biology (basically Statistical Biology)
Honors Physics
Logic in Action / Number Theory

Sophomore Year (11 classes):
French III
Biology (different from Methodology of Science - Biology)
Weight Training PE
Photography
AP World History
AP Computer Science A
Modes of Writing & Argumentation (English)
History & Philosophy of Science
Multivariable Calculus
AP Physics C: Mechanics / AP Physics C: Electricity & Magnetism
Astrophysics (plus an astronomy research seminar in 2nd semester)

I generally did better in non-STEM classes than STEM classes in my freshman year, and I am generally doing better in my STEM classes than my non-STEM classes this year.

Planned Major: While this may be subject to change, I am heavily leaning towards majoring in Physics, while minoring in Math. I’m hoping for a PhD in Physics. I’m worried about my current grade in AP Physics, however, as it is just on the boundary (it is at a B+, and the final, which I have not taken yet, is worth 30% of my grade).

Extracurriculars: Not much. I have so far engaged in some math, physics, and computer science competitions - including the AMC 10, F=ma exam, and USACO. I haven’t done super well in them so far, although I was able to level up from Bronze to Silver in USACO. I’m heavily focusing on the F=ma exam this year as I hope to pass the threshold and qualify for the USAPhO. I’m also looking at very opportunities for physics research. I’m already registered for an astronomy research seminar for next semester, and I’m looking into various summer research opportunities, including the QuarkNet program at Fermilab (this is all assuming that COVID eventually subsides by spring of next year). Other than that, I also do Indian classical music.

How am I doing so far? Am I still competitive for my top colleges (MIT, Stanford, Princeton, etc.) or are those out of my reach? Do I have too few ECs? Am I taking too many courses? And how likely is it that I get rejected from all colleges I am interested in, assuming I apply to all of them? Sorry about this really, really long post, I just wanted to make sure I’m on the right track.

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Based on what you have posted, you can hardly fail if you select your colleges properly. Prominent tech-oriented schools such as Harvey Mudd, MIT and Caltech might be appropriate for your interests, but so could more balanced options such as Pomona, Haverford, Amherst, Williams, Hamilton, Bowdoin and Reed. To be successful, you simply must avoid too narrow of an approach with respect to researching and applying to colleges. Not incidentally, nearly all of the schools mentioned in this post have produced Apker Award (the highest recognition in the nation for undergraduate research in physics) recipients or finalists, and all appear in a Princeton Review sampling, “Great Schools for Mathematics Majors.”

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I would generally say that doing well in your math and science classes is more important than jumping ahead in math and science. You have jumped ahead pretty far, and are not solidly in the A range in math and science. To me this is a red flag with regard to MIT and Stanford (which are the universities I probably know best, since I got my degrees at them). At least as a freshman at MIT (which was a long time ago) my impression is that other freshmen may have had B’s in multiple other classes (as did I), but nearly all had pretty much straight A’s and A+'s in math and science.

Waterloo is not going to care about your freshman year at all. This is true of other universities in Canada also. My impression is that this also applies to most of the Universities of California. I am not sure if there is an exception for AP classes.

Probably most importantly, there are a lot of very good universities. Top graduate schools such as Stanford accept students who have graduated from a very wide range of undergraduate universities.

Generally I think that you may be taking too many classes. IMHO you would be better off taking fewer classes, and doing better in them.

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25 Best Bachelor’s in Physics for 2021 – Bachelors Degree Center

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It’s early in your high school career, and maybe I’m overly pessimistic, but I would say that 3.7GPA is going to be below competitive at most of the schools you list.

While it’s factually accurate that none have an acceptance rate over 55%, it’s also true that all but two (US schools) have admission rates of 15% or lower. The other two are 30 and 45%.

It’s good to have high aims, but also have realistic match schools and safety schools (MD, Santa Barbara may be in the Match range).

A school counselor who knows the details better can probably provide a better assessment, but my initial reaction is that most of those schools are heavy reaches.

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Like others are saying, for that list of schools it is extremely important that you maintain As in all your stem classes. Your course load is extremely rigorous which is good but not enough. These colleges get the cream of the crop. Stanford has a thousands of kids applying with a course-load like yours, what separates who gets in and who doesn’t is what they do on their free time. I would roll back your classes. Stick to one advanced science class like AP Physics and do AP Bio the next year and then AP Chem the year after. Hold off on the useless A-G requirements until your last year like photography and weight training. Most importantly, use that free time you get by rolling back a few classes to dive deep into something you are interested. Build it into something. Stanford doesn’t care that you did physics research, they care that you took what you learned and invested that info into creating something or solving some sort of problem. Its all about applying that knowledge. Right now though, you are on a great track.

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And how likely is it that I get rejected from all colleges I am interested in, assuming I apply to all of them?

I’m not familiar with all those colleges, but plenty of them have around a 5% admit rate. Applying to extremely selective colleges is not like buying raffle tickets where the more tickets you have the better your chances of winning. Extremely selective colleges are all going to view their applicants about the same, and someone with low chances at one of them has low chances no matter how many they apply to.

While you are certainly no slacker, you are facing the best kids from across the country. Some have been building good ECs since 9th grade. Your grades so far are good but you’re not the strongest student in your HS, perhaps not even in the top 5%. If you’re not at the top in that small circle it doesn’t bode well for the most selective colleges.

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Wow. You are SO far ahead in math. Normally, in the US, one doesn’t do the equivalent of Calc BC until freshman year of high school, and you did it four years early.

Clearly, math and physics are your strong point. I would do what you need to in the other areas (an AP history and an AP English and an AP science every year, and honors foreign language for at least three years), but I’d focus on the math and physics. From what I understand, people who are going to make significant contributions in theoretical math and physics do so early in their lives, usually in their 20’s - you are on that trajectory. I would stop worrying about what college you’re going to get into. Instead, pursue math and physics NOW, if that’s what you love. I’m not saying to drop out of high school, or ignore your other classes, but if you can handle the other stuff, and your true love is math and physics, then grab as much of that as you can. If there is a local college/university where you can continue math and physics at high level (you will have finished AP Physics C and multivariable Calc by the end of this, your sophomore year), you should plan to do that. If you can work with a prof there and get a paper accepted for publication by the early fall of your senior year, you should do that. If you can score sky high in some national level math or physics competition by the fall of senior year, you should do that. This way, when you apply, it won’t be, “He only has a 3.7 unweighted GPA.” It will be, this is the math and physics whiz kid who we want in our department, and oh, look, he has decent grades in English, History, and Foreign Language, too. You don’t want to volunteer for key club and participate in track, to look well-rounded. You want to have incredible achievement in high school in math and physics, if that’s what you truly love, and be well on your way, before you apply to college.

If you don’t truly love the math and physics, and they don’t come easily to you, then this isn’t the path for you, but I get the feeling that it must be the case for you.