True, but people can get reinfected with Omicron (or if another variant comes along), and vaccinated people can get infected, and those vaccinated with previous infection can be reinfected (even if low risk as of right now).
CDC data indicates that 43% have nucleocapsid antibodies indicating some kind of COVID-19 infection (as distinct from vaccination). This is 12% higher than the 31% just before Omicron BA.1.
While it is possible that some of the previously infected 31% got Omicron BA.1 in addition to the 12% newly infected (that are presumed to be mostly Omicron BA.1), that does not mean that all of them did (especially since prior infection + vaccination usually gives the strongest immunity).
So it is likely that the lower bound is 12% and the upper bound is 43% for the US population having had Omicron BA.1. The actual is probably somewhere in between. Even the upper bound is unlikely to give Omicron-specific herd immunity.
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It’s all speculation. No one knows except that whatever the case may be omicron is less severe. Which is a good thing.
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Yes… there is risk to everything. I’ll take low risk after all we’ve been through.
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I often feel the people on this board live in an alternate universe than I do. I live in a liberal state, but have seen very few masks since the beginning of March. Life is going on. I was at a 300 plus person wedding a few weeks ago in Chicago. One mask! That’s it….one. And a lot of good that did as it was down around the chin by the end of the night. The dance floor was hopping all night long. I don’t know a single person avoiding indoor restaurants. I haven’t avoided eating indoors since 2020 when indoor dining first reopened. Went to a D1 college basketball game. No masks.
I don’t know anyone worried about the new variant. I don’t know anyone avoiding large gatherings. Everyone is back to enjoying life.
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I have season tickets to a D1 college basketball team (12,000 sear arena, all games sold out) in a liberal blue state with high vaccination rate. When masks were recommended, there were maybe 10% wearing masks. In late Jan.-early Feb., the state REQUIRED MASKS. Still, barely half complied. End of season, state went back to recommending masks–at that point maybe 5% wore masks.
Most are acting as if COVID is over, even in highly vaxxed areas.
I don’t think people are acting like it’s over I think they are acting like it is at this point not severe and is not ever going to be over and it’s time to deal with it as best for individual. People have access to N95 masks to protect themselves and there are treatments so it’s ok to live as you are comfortable.
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I will say that in my highly vaxed area masks are definitely in the minority now.
As far as BA.2 is concerned I am certainly aware. H, D2 and I along with many of our friends and family had BA.1 in December/January after being fully vaxed and boosted. Everyone we knew (us included) just felt like we had a bad head cold. Covid is now part of life just as colds and flus are.
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I don’t know what varient it is, but my boosted vaccinated D is really suffering. As if the stress of decisions wasn’t enough…
Anyhow, lots of coughing and it is hurting her.
180,000 dead since December 1, 2021 (slightly less than four months as of this writing) suggest that it is worse than a typical cold or flu (a bad flu year results in about 50,000 dead, despite lower flu vaccine uptake and lower flu vaccine effectiveness).
COVID-19 is now endemic. But endemic does not necessarily mean that it is not a concern.
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Covid is still kicking many people’s a$$ - although less than the original. But make no mistake.
Covid is still a pandemic.
People are hopeful that because the #s have substantially dropped, as they had before, that we are getting there…at least, that’s what i read from all the health departments - that it is still a pandemic.
It’s just a pandemic that people are tired of dealing with - and people are willing to let others get sick and die…so they can enjoy life.
The ultimate trade off.
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It just amazes me when people say they’re done with COViD. ??? What does that even mean? It’s nonsensical.
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It just means they learn to live with it like the UK.
My kids have booked multiple concerts, one just being to very packed concert recently.
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People maybe “done” with Covid, but the virus is definitely not done with us.
As someone who could not schedule an “elective” procedure in more than a year and finally was able to score an appointment four months out, I am concerned with any major uptick in hospitalizations that would effectively cancel my appointment. I’m sure I’m not alone.
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I 100% agree - you always see me with a mask.
In my life, I visit car dealers. They make fun of me - but they make fun of me while masked.
I eat outdoors or in my hotel room.
But - I’m not going to change 300 million people.
So I do what I do and let the rest do what they do.
Way too many people are dying and it’s not needed.
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@ucbalumnus - I know the number of Covid deaths have been high even during Omicron. I am not trying to downplay the severity of Covid especially for the unvaccinated. I was just answering the question about being concerned. I gave my example of fully vaccinated family and friends that recovered well from Omicron because we are all fully vaccinated.
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I just googled, we had about 8,000 deaths out of half a million cases, in a county of 3 million plus people.
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I am concerned because I see the number of hospitalizations and deaths in the UK and Europe. Places that have higher vaccination rates than we do and who also had big omicron waves. One tiny bit of hope for the US is that we had a lot of BA.1.1 whereas the UK had BA.1. Could be helpful. I’m in an “enjoy the lull and wait and see mode” right now.
I think I heard the BA.1 vs BA.1.1 on the In the Bubble with Andy Slavvit podcast recently.
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8,000 dead out of 500,000 cases is a 1.6% fatality rate. Seems like pretty bad outcomes in your county – similar to or worse than the fatality rates seen in the pre-vaccine time. Does your county have a high percentage of those who are more medically vulnerable to bad outcomes of COVID-19 (despite vaccines and the apparently somewhat lower severity of Omicron)?
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Looked at some numbers at CDC COVID Data Tracker
Considering case rates at peak (1/8, during Omicron surge) and death rates a week after peak case rates (1/15):
| Age group | Vaccinated | Cases / 100k 1/8 | Deaths / 100k 1/15 | Deaths / Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-49 | Yes | 1628.23 | 0.26 | 0.016% |
| 50-64 | Yes | 1167.87 | 1.61 | 0.13% |
| 65-79 | Yes | 639.38 | 6.63 | 1.0% |
| 80+ | Yes | 569.52 | 31.09 | 5.5% |
| 30-49 | No | 3711.15 | 2.58 | 0.070% |
| 50-64 | No | 3243.91 | 16.01 | 0.49% |
| 65-79 | No | 3469.03 | 90.85 | 2.6% |
| 80+ | No | 1882.36 | 184.36 | 9.8% |
(Of course, death is not the only bad thing that can happen if you get COVID-19.)
A few observations:
- Vaccinated people are significantly less likely to get COVID-19 than unvaccinated people, despite a large rate of breakthrough. However, some of the differences in case rates may have to do with behavioral differences (vaccinated people may be more careful about avoiding infection risks, for example).
- Vaccinated people who do get COVID-19 are less likely to die from it than unvaccinated people who do get COVID-19.
- Vaccinated elderly people are still at substantial risk if they do get a breakthrough infection (even though the risk is lower than if they get an unvaccinated infection).
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