<p>State university, state university, state university.</p>
<p>If you don't even apply to your state university (if you have one), you're just shooting yourself in the foot, and denying yourself a safety net. And that's just silly. Even if you "know" you'll get in somewhere, apply anyway. It. Cannot. Hurt.</p>
<p>As for just plain "other schools", it depends on everything you've been looking at MIT for to begin with. I'm looking at Princeton because I'm going math and their department chair is basically a rock-star (Wiles, Fermat, etc.), as well as being one of the epicenters of modern mathematics, so I know I'd be in good hands, but that's just me and my field. Also, I'm applying to Columbia because I'm a New York kid and NYC is my second home, as well as knowing I should be in good hands there, but that's just me and where I'm from. As for other schools that put their emphasis on sciences, I'll be looking at all the other same-tiers already mentioned: Cornell, Carnegie, Caltech, Mudd, and so on. But NONE of these, in ANY WAY, are even REMOTELY safe.</p>
<p>Technically, if someone wants to play the odds game, applying to 7 reach schools with 10% admission each is "safe". (The odds of getting turned down are 90%, .9 ^ 7 is around .47, which is under half.) But again, this is the real world, so that's just plain dumb.</p>
<p>The entire point of a safety school is to shoot low while still looking for somewhere you'll be happy. Of course, shooting low is the defining part of that. Do not use probabilities and percentiles to gamble away YOUR FUTURE; common sense is what will save your skin if things go sour.</p>