Perish:
Adelphi University
Augustana College
Baker University
Bard College
Beloit College
Bennington College
Bethel University
Biola University
Brandeis University
Campbell University
Chapman University
Clark University
Clarke University
College of Saint Benedict
College of the Atlantic
Concordia College at Moorhead
Cornell College
Covenant College
Daemen College
Denison University
DePauw University
Dickinson College
Drew University
Drexel University
Earlham College
Eckerd College
Elon University
Florida Institute of Technology
Fordham University
Franklin and Marshall College
Franklin College
Gannon University
Gardner-Webb University
George Fox University
Harding University
Hofstra University
Illinois Institute of Technology
Kent State University at Kent
Kenyon College
Knox College
Lake Forest College
Lawrence University
Lipscomb University
Long Island University
Loyola University Chicago
Luther College
Macalester College
Maryville University of Saint Louis
Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts
Meredith College
Mount Holyoke College
New Mexico State University-Main Campus
Nova Southeastern University
Oberlin College
Ohio Wesleyan University
Pace University
Pacific University
Pitzer College
Robert Morris University
Sarah Lawrence College
Seton Hall University
Simmons University
Skidmore College
Smith College
St John’s University-New York
St Lawrence University
St Olaf College
St. John’s College - MD
St. John’s College - NM
Tennessee Technological University
The College of Idaho
The College of Saint Scholastica
The College of Wooster
The New School
The Sage Colleges
The University of Texas at Dallas
Union University
University of Alabama in Huntsville
University of California-Santa Cruz
University of Detroit Mercy
University of Hartford
University of Indianapolis
University of La Verne
University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth
University of Missouri-St Louis
University of New England
University of St Francis
University of the Incarnate Word
University of the Pacific
Wartburg College
Wilkes University
Willamette University
Yeshiva University
Struggle:
Agnes Scott College
Albion College
Allegheny College
Austin College
Azusa Pacific University
Baylor University
Bellarmine University
Belmont University
Berea College
Catholic University of America
Centenary College of Louisiana
Central College
Centre College
Chatham University
Clarkson University
Coe College
Colorado College
Concordia University-Wisconsin
Connecticut College
Dallas Baptist University
Drake University
Edgewood College
Elizabethtown College
Emory & Henry College
Furman University
Georgetown College
Gettysburg College
Goucher College
Guilford College
Gustavus Adolphus College
Hampden-Sydney College
Hampton University
Hanover College
Hartwick College
Hendrix College
Hobart William Smith Colleges
Hollins University
Hope College
Houghton College
Illinois College
Illinois Wesleyan University
Immaculata University
Juniata College
Kalamazoo College
Lesley University
Lewis & Clark College
Lincoln Memorial University
Linfield College-McMinnville Campus
Loyola University New Orleans
Lycoming College
Marlboro College
Mary Baldwin University
Mercer University
Millsaps College
Misericordia University
Monmouth College
Moravian College
Morehouse College
Muhlenberg College
Occidental College
Oklahoma City University
Old Dominion University
Presbyterian College
Quinnipiac University
Randolph College
Randolph-Macon College
Reed College
Regent University
Ripon College
Roanoke College
Sacred Heart University
Saint Anselm College
Saint John Fisher College
Saint Johns University
Saint Mary’s College
Saint Michael’s College
Saint Norbert College
Saint Vincent College
Salem College
Samford University
Scripps College
Seattle Pacific University
Seattle University
Sewanee - The University of the South
Shenandoah University
Simpson College
Southern Illinois University-Carbondale
Southwestern University
Spelman College
St Catherine University
St. Thomas Aquinas College
Stonehill College
Susquehanna University
Sweet Briar College
Texas Christian University
The University of Findlay
The University of Montana
Thomas Jefferson University
Transylvania University
University of Dayton
University of Maine
University of North Carolina at Asheville
University of North Carolina at Greensboro
University of Puget Sound
University of Saint Joseph
University of St Thomas
University of Tulsa
Ursinus College
Valparaiso University
Virginia Commonwealth University
Wabash College
Warren Wilson College
Washington & Jefferson College
Washington College
Wells College
Wesleyan College
Western New England University
Westminster College
Westminster College
Westmont College
Wheaton College
Whitman College
Whittier College
Widener University
Wittenberg University
Wofford College
Survive:
Arizona State University-Tempe
Barnard College
Bates College
Binghamton University
Boston University
Bowling Green State University-Main Campus
Brown University
Bryn Mawr College
California State University-Fresno
Carnegie Mellon University
Case Western Reserve University
Central Michigan University
Claremont McKenna College
College of William and Mary
Colorado School of Mines
Colorado State University-Fort Collins
Columbia University in the City of New York
CUNY City College
DePaul University
Emory University
Florida International University
Florida State University
George Mason University
George Washington University
Georgetown University
Georgia Institute of Technology-Main Campus
Georgia State University
Gonzaga University
Grand Valley State University
Grinnell College
Haverford College
Illinois State University
Indiana University-Bloomington
Iowa State University
Kansas State University
Lehigh University
Louisiana Tech University
Loyola Marymount University
Miami University-Oxford
Michigan State University
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Montana State University
Montclair State University
New Jersey Institute of Technology
New York University
North Carolina A & T State University
North Carolina State University at Raleigh
North Dakota State University-Main Campus
Northeastern University
Ohio State University-Main Campus
Oklahoma State University-Main Campus
Pennsylvania State University-Main Campus
Pepperdine University
Purdue University-Main Campus
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Rochester Institute of Technology
Rutgers University-Camden
Rutgers University-New Brunswick
Rutgers University-Newark
San Diego State University
Santa Clara University
South Dakota State University
Stevens Institute of Technology
Stony Brook University
SUNY at Albany
SUNY Buffalo State
Syracuse University
Temple University
Texas Tech University
The University of Alabama
Towson University
Trinity College
Tufts University
University of Arizona
University of California-Berkeley
University of California-Davis
University of California-Irvine
University of California-Los Angeles
University of California-Riverside
University of California-San Diego
University of California-Santa Barbara
University of Central Florida
University of Chicago
University of Colorado-Boulder
University of Connecticut
University of Denver
University of Florida
University of Hawaii at Manoa
University of Houston
University of Illinois at Chicago
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
University of Iowa
University of Maryland-College Park
University of Massachusetts-Amherst
University of Massachusetts-Boston
University of Massachusetts-Lowell
University of Memphis
University of Miami
University of Minnesota-Morris
University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
University of Missouri-Kansas City
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
University of New Mexico-Main Campus
University of North Carolina at Charlotte
University of North Carolina Wilmington
University of North Dakota
University of North Texas
University of Oklahoma-Norman Campus
University of Oregon
University of Rhode Island
University of Rochester
University of San Francisco
University of South Florida-Main Campus
University of Southern California
University of Utah
University of Washington-Seattle Campus
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Vanderbilt University
Vassar College
Wake Forest University
Wellesley College
Wesleyan University
West Virginia University
Western Michigan University
William Carey University
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Thrive:
American University
Amherst College
Auburn University
Ball State University
Birmingham Southern College
Boston College
Bowdoin College
Brigham Young University-Provo
Bucknell University
California Institute of Technology
Carleton College
Clemson University
Colby College
Colgate University
College of the Holy Cross
Cornell University
Creighton University
Dartmouth College
Davidson College
Duke University
Duquesne University
East Carolina University
Florida Atlantic University
Gallaudet University
Hamilton College
Harvard University
Harvey Mudd College
Howard University
Indiana University-Purdue University-Indianapolis
Johns Hopkins University
Lafayette College
Marquette University
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Michigan Technological University
Middlebury College
Mississippi State University
Northwestern University
Ohio University-Main Campus
Oregon State University
Pomona College
Princeton University
Regis University
Rhodes College
Rice University
Rowan University
Saint Louis University
Sam Houston State University
Southern Methodist University
St. Mary’s College of Maryland
Stanford University
SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry
Swarthmore College
Texas A & M University-College Station
The University of Texas at Austin
Tulane University of Louisiana
Union College
University of Alabama at Birmingham
University of Alaska Fairbanks
University of Arkansas
University of Cincinnati-Main Campus
University of Colorado Denver/Anschutz Medical Campus
University of Delaware
University of Georgia
University of Idaho
University of Kansas
University of Kentucky
University of Louisville
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor
University of Mississippi
University of Missouri-Columbia
University of Nevada-Reno
University of New Hampshire-Main Campus
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
University of North Florida
University of Notre Dame
University of Pennsylvania
University of Pittsburgh-Pittsburgh Campus
University of Richmond
University of San Diego
University of South Carolina-Columbia
University of South Dakota
University of Vermont
University of Virginia-Main Campus
University of Wyoming
Utah State University
Villanova University
Virginia Military Institute
Washington and Lee University
Washington State University
Washington University in St Louis
Wayne State University
Williams College
Yale University
Mt. Holyoke, Macalester, and especially Skidmore, Smith and Pitzer kind of jump out at me as probably not belonging on this list. Maybe others more so but those are the ones I am familiar with that I didn’t think belong.
I’m guessing at least with the first 2 that the large # of international students is the main issue. My guess though is that is a problem for the 2020’s and maybe 2021’s, but not a long term structural problem.
The reality is at all of these schools that there are a large # of kids who are regularly denied who would be thrilled to take the full pay spot of an international student. Pitzer has a 16% acceptance rate. I realize that this list used objective criteria, but I think that number alone pretty much overrules any other problems they face. They could eliminate financial aid completely and still fill the classes easily.
Objective criteria can be subjectively chosen. For example, the way he assesses “value” is one third “education”. But his proxies for “education” are based on pay levels of graduates over 15 and 30 years (which are heavily influenced by the mix of majors at the college), and faculty pay per student. While it is not surprising that a business faculty member uses money-based proxies, many here may not agree that these are the best proxies for “education” quality.
Hard to accept that some of the schools on the “perish” list belong there based on the factors cited & in comparison to some that made the “struggle” list.
In addition to those noted above by another poster (Smith, Mount Holyoke, Pitzer, Macalester, & Skidmore), it is hard to believe that St. Lawrence University & Fordham are “on the brink”.
Several schools on the “struggle” list are in far worse condition financially than are any of those 7 noted in the paragraph above.
@chmcnm
You may want to check your lists. St. Olaf is included on your perish list, while the spreadsheet that accompanied the article lists it as struggling.
I’m kinda doubting the State of California would let UC Santa Cruz go under.
There seems to be a very fine line between the Thrive and Survive lists (UPenn=Thrive; Columbia=Survive; BC=Thrive; Brown=Survive. Classic case of “Harvard Has to be in a Class of Its Own” in order for the ranking to be popular.
I was curious if those on the Perish or Struggle list have a leg to stand on to sue for defamation or whatever – granted he claims his analysis is data driven (which is true to some extent), but as others say, its which metrics you are using. And even within the metric there are many variations (instate vs OOS tuition etc). And other nuances or factors that can make a school viable.
So Mt Holyoke for one, with a huge endowment per FT student, may beg to disagree that they will/should Perish. It could affect parents/prospective students decisions to apply, for better or worse. The terminology is very harsh (perish?) - but that’s the marketing quadrant methodology.
Or as mentioned above - UC Santa Cruz? Kind of loses some credibility here - his analysis is probably too simplistic. But gets eyeballs which is probably his goal.
OTOH, he could be doing parents/students a favor by warning them of impending demise! :neutral:
extremely questionable list
Mount Holyoke is unusually reliant on foreign students-close to 30% of enrolled students.
Nope, just checked, definitely in the dustbin category. Harsh indeed Prof G.
So this could be a wakeup call to Mt. H – to be so reliant on int’l students maybe not the best model then.
When I look at the spreadsheet, I see St. Olaf listed as “Struggle” too.
@chmcnm Thank you for taking the time to type out the lists.
How odd! Hmm, makes me wonder what other inaccuracies there are. For sure if I were an institution on the perish or dustbin list, I’d be upset (and he may have a point, so time for introspection too).
I don’t know how to copy a snippet so I just copied the line from EXCEL sheet:
St Olaf College Perish
Ahh! But I just went back to Dave Berry post to his link to original article and pulled the google doc. Yup, says “struggle there”. And yet when I downloaded file to EXCEL, says “Perish”. Go figure. Oh well, we all take this (his analysis) with more than a grain of salt anyway!
Or maybe it is a better model. Bigger customer base that already knows your name. Just because he says it is risky doesn’t mean it actually is risky.
You’re welcome to those who said thanks and you get what you pay for to anyone that doesn’t like my cut and paste abilities. Lol.
I would like to bump this list up to Moody’s or S&P ratings.
Lots of questionable picks. Schools like Fordham maybe made the list because of Catholic affiliation and location? I’m sure donations are down and I’m not sure how well New York is going to fare post-Covid.
UT-Dallas was a head scratcher. It’s climbed so fast and invested so much money.
That said this is worst case scenario so the number of kids that can afford college might plummet enough to close these schools.
Other threads have commented on this. Factors included in the methodology includes student Niche ratings and the number of google searches for the college’s name, which seems downright silly to me as the basis for predicting whether a particular institution will thrive or not. Higher ed has been talking for some time about the challenges ahead, with a decline in college age population. Certainly, those challenges are accelerated by pandemic but a lot of these schools, including LACs on the so-called “perish” list, will be just fine. This article is click bait posing as serious data analysis.