Wasn’t quite sure where to put this, but I’ll try it here. 
http://www.ihep.org/sites/default/files/uploads/docs/pubs/limited_means_limited_options_report_final.pdf is the IHEP report referenced by that web page.
It looks like their baseline affordability threshold is with no loans (e.g. they assume that students from the poorest backgrounds can only afford $3,625 per year, presumably from part time work earnings). They do show that a somewhat greater percentage of colleges becomes affordable for students willing to take federal direct loans.
However, it is no surprise that 8 of the 10 example students (including 3 of the 5 dependent students; the other 5 were independent non-traditional students) find 95+% colleges unaffordable without loans, and 70+% of colleges unaffordable even with federal direct loans. The example student with parents earning $105,405 finds 59% unaffordable without loans and 36% unaffordable with federal direct loans. The example student with parents earning $162,995 finds 10% unaffordable without loans and 5% unaffordable with federal direct loans.
This is not a surprise since:
- Out of state public colleges generally have no or greatly insufficient financial aid.
- Most private colleges do not have good financial aid.
- Many states' public colleges do not have good financial aid even for in-state students.
Next up- most people in America cannot afford to buy a brand new car for cash. Followed by: Mortgages- who knew they were so popular?