<p>Once you get off the first page of the US News rankings, it is pretty predictable by the stats. My experience has been that admissions decisions become unpredictable (i.e holistic) once you get below a 40% acceptance rate. Otherwise, if your kid’s stats are above the median you will very likely get in. </p>
<p>My daughter got into 10 of the 11 schools she applied to. Totally a function of being sensible in making the list of schools to apply to. She had only two reach schools – got into one and not the other. With the Common App and $50 app fees, there’s no reason for this to be a concern. Just push the button on a couple more schools a notch lower down the food chain. </p>
<p>Another reason to do that is that the safety schools (where your kid’s stats are at/above the 75th percentile of the school’s applicant pool) will tend to be your merit money schools too.</p>