<p>Doesn’t MyChances use samples of sometimes as few as 3 students? Also, doesn’t the data come from a single counselor who could easily direct students down certain paths of his/her own preference?</p>
<p>Whereas we have to be careful using the oft-sighted RP survey due to it only being a model based on data, I’m more inclined to trust a model with more data points as its basis than a very small sample from a counselor.</p>
<p>Ever heard of sample bias?</p>
<p>Additionally, I still think that the data presented from RP is favorable to Brown. Yes, it’s been correctly pointed out that choices are far less predictable below the top 5. However, as an aggregate, Brown still well out performs the number 8 slot, and I’d love to see some analysis on the likelihood that Brown scored that much higher totally by chance. Confidence in very basic statistics is calculated that way, and even if Brown may curiously lose in a few head-to-heads with lower ranked schools, the aggregate still may be accurate and elevated through far greater than predicted success against other schools.</p>
<p>If anything, this may suggest there are fewer cross-admits with Brown and some of the schools surrounding it, and that instead, more students who chose to go to Brown are self-selected. How could one explain that scenario? What if students who apply to Brown and other schools of similar selectivity choose to go to other schools if they get in, however, students who apply to Brown and then only a set of schools with less perceived selectivity go to Brown. The higher RP score for Brown could come from frequently being the “top choice” that students who apply to say, schools 15-25 on the RP list, and refrain from applying to other top schools because they don’t attract them (Brown being unique like CalTech, another anomaly by siserune’s analysis). This simply means that schools right below Brown beat Brown because many students are applying to Brown in a lump with other top schools, however, in instances where Brown is a top choice, students are rarely attracted to even apply to other schools of similar selectivity.</p>
<p>Does that make sense? It’s far harder to describe in writing than I anticipated.</p>
<p>For example, no school I applied to was nearly as selective as Brown despite the fact that I had stats that made me competitive anywhere. The reason I applied to no other schools is because unique elements of Brown made me feel Brown was “worth it” whereas other expensive schools would not be worth the added expense over schools where I would get considerable merit scholarship. Had I just been interested in going to a top school, I may have applied to many schools in the top 15 or so, got into a few, a selected one which was less unique from the others in that subset than Brown.</p>
<p>Regardless, this is all speculation helping to keep a nonsense thread bumped over nonsense splitting hairs.</p>