Though that would probably be seen as another undesired “consolation prize” like the way the students in question see admission to UCR or UCM.
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Perhaps for some, but others might jump at the chance for a degree from UCLA or UCB for less $$.
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NCES Blog | The “Where” of Going to College: Residence, Migration, and Fall Enrollment has some 2018 stats of which states export and import students. Percentages are against the total new frosh.
| State | New frosh in state | In state students going out | Out of state students coming in | Net student migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 400,288 | 44,751 (11.1%) | 37,787 (9.4%) | -6,964 (-1.7%) |
| Texas | 255,038 | 32,276 (12.7%) | 16,923 (6.6%) | -15,353 (-6.0%) |
| Illinois | 95,742 | 36,746 (38.3%) | 16,548 (17.3%) | -20,198 (-21%) |
| New Jersey | 70,129 | 34,928 (49.8%) | 6,455 (9.2%) | -28,473 (-40.6%) |
| Michigan | 85,226 | 10,799 (12.6%) | 11,024 (12.9%) | +225 (+0.3%) |
| Washington | 49,544 | 11,748 (23.7%) | 9,323 (18.8%) | -2,425 (-4.9%) |
Compared to some other states, California does not seem to have a particularly high rate of student out-migration compared to its student population. Yes, you may argue that student out-migration tends to be of the stronger students whose parents have more money, but that is likely true for any state.
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“Valedictorian” criteria aren’t the same everywhere. At my kids’ HS (CA public), every 4.0UW student is a valedictorian. So, a student who never took AP or Honors classes but got straight A’s would be a valedictorian, whereas a student with 12 AP’s and a 3.99UW/4.5W would not.
But anyway.
One way to prevent the problem of good students getting shut out would be to have a ranked-choice application system, where students rank the UC’s according to preference and receive only one offer - similar to how residency-matching works for med students. Then you wouldn’t have such extremes of some kids getting in everywhere while other qualified applicants come up empty. However, I’m not sure students and parents would welcome this approach. People like to be able to get multiple acceptances and decide among them.
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I would argue that this is how the system should work across the US (at least for public institutions, privates do what they like and no one should complain about that). But you then have to contend with the various financial aspects of college attendance, financial aid offers etc. and the waters get instantly murky. I got into my third ranked choice for undergraduate studies in my home country in Europe (attendance is free) and called it a day. Great undergraduate education with ZERO bells and whistles. Changing major was a near impossibility, however, unless I wanted to retake the super high stakes entrance exams yet again. I like the flexibility of the US system but at what cost? Back to the California system… my kid wanted to stay in state. She applied to all the levels mentioned in the posts above including our local CSU. I think she was in the top 10% of her graduating class and her results were predictable at the least selective in state institutions and unpredictable at the more selective ones. We knew what to expect and she planned accordingly.
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Yes, it becomes much less straightforward to rank options when “perks” may vary. A Regents offer or an Honors College admission or a big merit scholarship (not all features of UC admission but speaking in general) could easily move a 3rd choice ahead of a 1st or 2nd choice. It’s complicated. Also, some kids haven’t quite figured out what they want to study, and apply to different programs at different schools so that they can decide once they know their options. A substantial overhaul of the application system would be challenging and no doubt controversial. There’s at least the ELC guarantee for the top 9%, so that’s something.
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Illinois, New Jersey and Texas have bigger issues than California. And none of Texas’ surrounding state schools are ranked in the top 100, like UC-Merced and Riverside.
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D18 was in the top 10% of her HS class. She got into desirable UC’s, but chose to go OOS.
The UC’s have issues. Changing majors, getting classes, finding affordable off-campus housing, ease of access or lack thereof to your advisors, big classes, small endowments, etc.
And the football is the worst of the Power 5 conferences. 
The Pac-12 redeemed themselves this last basketball cycle, but that sport hasn’t been good either.
I’ll add that D18 will graduate a semester early with two minors.
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As a European, the focus on college sports seems crazy to me!
Congrats to your kid! It sounds like they found a great place to thrive! And your younger kid is off to CalPoly I believe. Great choice! Double Congrats!!!
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Someone like Luca Doncic started playing professionally around age 14, I think. So the best European players don’t play university ball. Here in the US, students are forced to either play college ball (football, basketball) or go to the G League (newer basketball rule now).
So, it’s a bit of a different system, I think. But I’m not totally familiar with the European university system. But yes, we do love our college sports. At least I do.
And yes, thank you D21 only applied to in-state schools and SLO was her top choice. Her UC results were OK. Better than some worse than others.
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But wouldn’t that require colleges to issue financial aid offers (contingent on admission and match) beforehand to each applicant?
You’re right! I would think that no European players play university ball. I went to high school with a couple of kids that went on to play professionally (soccer and water polo) straight out of high school. Their life seemed so much different than ours (the more academically inclined crowd) and we benefited so much from their different worldview. I can see this diversity of outlook as a benefit to the US college system.
Isn’t need-based aid pretty consistent across the UC system?
But yes, as already acknowledged, there are things students don’t find out until they get accepted, that could influence how they would rank the campuses. It would be a massive paradigm shift to move to a ranched-choice application system - one that would make few people happy up-front. It would just cut down on the unhappiness that every applicant hopes won’t happen to them. No perfect solution when demand exceeds supply. Test-blind makes it even more baffling, given the ceiling effect in terms of GPA’s.
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It’s a minuscule sample size, but D21 is the only one in her group of friends staying in-state. Her best friends are attending colleges in MA, OR, IL and NY. 🤷
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Would you rather that they admit and enroll fewer students so that each major has more unused capacity to accommodate those changing major, at the cost of even more complaints from other posters in this thread about how difficult it is to get into them?
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I actually don’t give an S at this point because I’m done with the process. And I’m happy with our outcomes. I paid more for D18, but I didn’t have to worry about changing majors, housing, class registration, class sizes, crime, etc. and she’ll graduate early.
But I guess the UC’s could expand capacity by buying and adding more land, buildings, professors and pay their GSI’s more so they don’t strike. Higher tuition? Better fundraising? Say like UCLA’s recent round/efforts. Better football and basketball teams, so UC alumni will contribute more?
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The land and space for expansion is more available and less expensive in Merced than Los Angeles or Berkeley. Yes, infilling is possible and being done to some extent, but there is more cost and local opposition to contend with than at Merced. But then we get back to the problem that many UC-intending students think that Merced is “beneath” them.
Potential answers:
UC Yreka?
CSU Humbolt, the next Cal Poly campus?
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Sounds like the CA high speed rail - let’s build UC’s where nobody wants to go.
Last time I walked around UCLA and UCSB there was plenty of open space. Same with SLO. Expansion of our best schools makes total sense to me. If you had a business with the brand strength these schools have they would grow to meet demand. Doesn’t have to be all brick and mortar - add some more online . . . must have perfected this approach during Covid.
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One of the big problems with the UCs is that there are differences in resources among the campuses. It is not just a matter of name or prestige and location. It is also that money within the UC system is not uniform. There are rich campuses and poorer campuses, this affects the student experience and outcomes.
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