<p>I've been hearing that term thrown around in conversations I've had about college, and even though there's strong evidence to support it, it cant be true...can it?</p>
<p>For instance, one of my friends from a pretty uncompetitive public school in my area with a very low gpa, and sat's was accepted into UPENN last year. We always give him a hard time about it. And it seems that a lot of kids will get denied from most the ivies, rightfully so, and yet somehow make it into one or even two, with sub par satistics. </p>
<p>I think calling it a crap shoot is extreme.</p>
<p>My high school valedictorian was rejected from UCLA; I was ranked 6th or 9th (I don't remember) and got into Harvard. I didn't have a "very low gpa", but this comparison might still seem startling.</p>
<p>I believe the reasons behind those results lie in our activities, commitments, and essays. She was in a couple clubs with no leadership, and she rarely participated in class. I was in several clubs with long-term commitments, and I had many leadership positions. So... numerical stats aren't everything! Colleges will see who you are, whether or not you're passionate about learning/ECs, and what you have gained from your experiences.</p>
<p>That being said... perhaps the people with very low gpas had some other extremely redeeming qualities that you are unaware of. I have no idea. I suppose I have faith that admissions committees know what they're doing.</p>
<p>I would venture to say that there is some randomness involved (rounding out the class, etc). However, people who say its complete crapshoot have no idea what they're talking about. When you see someone get into an awesome college with relatively low stats, you only see the stats (well, parts of the app). You don't see the complete package - the extracuriculars, the essays, the recs, the intangible stuff.</p>
<p>It's not so much a "crap shoot" on the schools' side. What I mean when I say it's a "crap shoot" on the applicant's side is that once you've passed a certain threshold, it's impossible to tell whether Student A will be accepted or whether Student B will be accepted. It's impossible to determine your own odds of admission to any particular school (despite all these "What are my chances" threads); it's anybody's guess (outside of the admissions office). And it's impossible to "craft" your application because there's so much you don't know about the school, its needs, and your competition.</p>
<p>I use the term to try to get kids to relax and stop all this "What will look better? Should I take another AP or get a job" type of nonsense.</p>
<p>That's a great outlook, Chedva. I feel both sad and frustrated when I see all these threads about "how will this activity look to colleges". You and I both know that there's no right answer; it's about excelling in what you do and finding something you're passionate about.</p>
<p>I think when people use that term they are talking about the fact that you can have the grades, ecs, and essays necessary to be competitive and could possibly still not get in. If student A and student B have close to the same stats but only one of them gets in it makes it appear to be a crapshoot. Although in the committees eyes I am sure the person who got in just stood out a little bit more for one reason or another. Basically I think it just means there is no guarantee when it comes to college admissions.</p>
<p>While not arbitrary from a particular college's perspective, it may have an element of crapshoot to the applicant who cannot know the college's priorities in complete detail.</p>
<p>Which is "better": a student with 3.9 GPA and 1380 SATs and this set of extracurriculars, vs. a student with a 3.8 GPA and a 1410 SATand these different extracurriculars? There are subjective,and qualitative factors here which reasonable admissions offices can, and evidently do, weight differently. </p>
<p>It's sort of like rankings of colleges. There are are various rankings, including the one you make yourself, based on your own personal criteria. There's substantial overlap in the various rankings, but there are differences too. Because differrent evaluators weight various factors differently.</p>
<p>Then, at a certain point, probably zillions of these applicants all look the same, but there may only be a few spots available. At that point the hair-splitting, though not necessarily completely arbitrary from the college's perspective, may indeed approach this to the outside (and maybe inside) observer.</p>
<p>I think I've decided it's more like a lottery than crap shoot -- the better your statistics, the better your recs and essays, the more lottery tickets you have bought, increasing your chances. But you still haven't guaranteed yourself anything, and someone who only has one ticket could still win. Of course, some students have parents who can buy them all the lottery tickets (the Veruca Salts), but there's not much we can do about that.</p>