I think older sibling got an automatic full ride to AL as an in-state resident, so the family did not have to complete FAFSA for that.
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I do not know if my college sibling fills out FAFSA every year. I do know that it was filled when applying to college. They got a full ride based off their ACT score.
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It’s not a matter of if it’s required. I don’t know any low-ish income families that did not fill out FAFSA, including those whose students were trying for full-ride scholarships. It’s just not something that is blithely skipped.
I fully understand full-pay families skipping the FAFSA. And if the OP’s family did indeed skip filling out the FAFSA, that gives the OP a big clue as to his family’s financial wherewithal.
Again, people in true financial need do not consider skipping the FAFSA. At least none I know have ever skipped it.
Question: I know many have said UA hands out many full-ride schlolarships. However, browsing the UA scholarship page, every one I see requires families pay “regular room rate.” If that is true for most UA scholarship recipients, that is all the more reason for financially needy families to have filled out the FAFSA, because it might help cover R&B.
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First find out if your parents filled out the FAFSA for either of your siblings. If the EFC is below $7K, that indicates serious financial need. If the EFC is above $20K, that indicates much less need. If it is above $40K, that indicates a less dire situation.
Colleges will know your EFC number (if your family fills out FAFSA) and some will offer need-based financial aid accordingly. Public universities generally offer much less need-based aid, including almost every Out-of-state university. Private universities run the gamut from awarding significant need-based financial aid, to providing only a token amount of need-based financial aid.
But for FAFSA schools, it starts with the family filling out the FAFSA. And CSS schools will also require the CSS Profile be filled out. If your family opts to not fill out one or the other, it is an indication your parents assume they will not qualify for need-based financial aid.
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Hi. I think you misread the AL National Merit Scholarship wrong. It includes room. Not trying to be picky, just thought you might want to know for future knowledge. 
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If the OP’s sibling was Pell eligible, the school would have them fill out the FAFSA every year to get that money as part of their FA package. My D was matched through QB, and I filled out the FAFSA yearly so the school could get those funds.
It may have been the Pell amount for the sibling changed throughout the 4 years, but the school would still ask for the FASFA as not to miss any federal funds the student was eligible for.
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OP said:
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@An_D did your college soon to be senior sibling complete the 2023-2024 FAFSA (that’s the one for the upcoming year). Really…that is the one that sounds like it would be closest to what yours might look like.
But back to your original question about chances. I think you need to redo this list…and put the reaches where they belong. And eliminate the UCs. I don’t think those will fit in your budget at all.
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Thanks for the correction. I posted the NM Finalist Scholarship Package. Couldn’t find the National Merit scholarship package for some reason.
As it turns out, the OP is not a NM Scholar or Finalist, so at UA he will be left with R&B to pay for at minimum.
I think OP’s family will work this out. They haven’t filed FAFSA which indicates a lack of the highest financial need. The older sibling already attended the lowest cost option available. It’s possible the OP will do the same. Or maybe the OP gets accepted to a highly rejective school and the family can afford it. Or maybe the OP finds joy in the happy space where he can go OOS to a school that provides great Merit-based aid.
The answers to all his financial questions can only be found with his parents/sibling. None of us can provide the OP the answers he seeks most at the moment – which schools are financially affordable to his family.
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Lots of moving parts in terms of finances for this OP. The older sibling took the free ride. That certainly helped. But now two additional students will be starting college next fall. That could be financially more challenging.
Of course, the finances are totally up to the family…I hope they can work this out for the benefit of all.
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Sibling did not have to live on campus first year because of their condition.
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So the lower the number the better the financial aid I would receive?
Yes.
I will check with them today.
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Theoretically, yes. However, be aware that some schools will never provide much need-based aid, no matter how low your number is. And other schools might provide tens of thousands of dollars of need-based aid but still leave a price tag of $50K. The EFC is not a guarantee of the deliverance of “enough” aid from (almost) any college or university.
There are only two certainties. One, if your efc is low enough your family will qualify for the Pell Grant. The Pell Grant is a government provided grant of up to approximately $6700 per year. Some families will receive the full Pell Grant, some a lower amount based on their EFC. Many families in the middle class and above categories will not qualify for any Pell Grant funds.
The second certainty is that if your family fills out the FAFSA, you will possibly gain access to between $5500-$7500/yr in Federal Student Loan funding.
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Yes and no. Generally yes.
But an EFC on FAFSA does not necessarily line up with each private or others who use CSS which will have their own calculation. And will all be different.
But directionally, yes that’s likely.
The solution to your issue unless you can figure this out is to not ED.
But the UCs, UIUC, Michigan, Texas, Washington. These need to come off regardless. There’s no way for them to hit budget.
Purdue has a small chance to get close if you get their hard to get $10k merit. UNC can stay if you have demonstrated need. They are one of two publics along with UVA that promise to meet need and use CSS. Ga Tech - I think they offer Stamps so it’s a Hail Mary but if you have an extra common app spot - it’s hugely unlikely but I suppose at least not a zero percent chance of hitting budget.
Those schools are high reaches anyway and there are solid, affordable OOS publics you can replace them with. State colleges generally support their in state students. However, some offer heavy merit to bring top kids in - that’s why your flagship is loaded with top kids from all over.
But these schools you listed don’t do that.
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Not a possibility, this is a guarantee. Anyone completing the FAFSA is eligible to receive the federally funded Direct Loan…as long as their college participates in the loan program. If you don’t have financial need, your loan will be unsubsidized meaning it accrues interest as soon as disbursed to you. @kelsmom…can a student get the direct loan if other aid meets the cost of attendance?
Gotcha. I was under the mistaken impression that beyond a certain income limit, the Direct Loans were unavailable. Thanks for the correction.
Aid can only be awarded up to cost of attendance. However, unsubsidized loan can be requested if the aid doesn’t cover the EFC. That is, if COA - EFC = total of all aid, the student can get an unsubsidized loan up to the max for year in school ($5,500 freshman year). But if all aid = COA, no unsubsidized loan.
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Any that come to mind that have not been mentioned before?