Since you will be National Merit, it really makes sense to add University of Tulsa and UT-Dallas to your list of safeties. Both would give you full rides essentially.
University of Tulsa is a small private University where upwards of 20% of incoming students are National Merit, so you would have a lot of smart peers. There are lots of opportunities for research and mentoring.
UT-Dallas also has a lot of National Merit Scholars and is well known in STEM. It is in Texas but does NOT have a traditional “Southern School” vibe with Big Sports or Big Greek. Instead the vibe is smart, nerdy and collaborative.
So yes, REA to Stanford if it is your #1 choice (and the NPC says your family can afford it) but definitely apply to schools where you are guaranteed a free ride too!
I’ve included a link that talks about the schools that give big merit for NMFs: