So - at $50K, bummer you didn’t apply for Questbridge - but that’s past unless you’re a Junior.
So MIT and Cal Tech - you have things going for you but I don’t think your test scores are enough. I’ll leave your reaches alone - maybe they work.
If I was NMSF, I’d look at schools like -
Tulsa - where you’d get a full ride. It’d be a nice one to have in the bank and it’s a smaller school like many you have.
Alabama (if you get NMF) and I realize it’s not much different than MS - but you get 5 years free tuition (grad school), four years housing, and $4K per year in money - sometimes there are tradeoffs and you move after. With NMSF it’s still good but not this good.
Others to look at - UMaine, UT Dallas, FSU, USF, etc. and more. So they’re not like your list (except Tulsa) - but you need safe schools that will make the budget. According to the President of Tulsa who posts on this site, 25% of their class is NM Scholars. And I believe Alabama has more scholars than any school in the country - as you can see, especially if you’re a finalist - you score big.
So - that makes your list safe - meaning - you have absolutely places to go if needed.
Then you can reach for the stars - including MIT and Cal Tech. I’d make sure you check the net price calculators to ensure if you get in you can afford them. And your list, except Whitman, is heavy - and you might look at easier to get into schools - such as RPI (who needs females), Denison, Franklin & Marshall - schools that are a bit easier than your list.
Finally, Arizona has a NMSF and NMF package. It’'d be low 20s all in I believe - but it’s a top rated physics program - and yes it’s a large school but it has an Honors College.
Miami Ohio - they have some full rides - but very very difficult - so it’s one you might cut.
I wish you luck - but I’d take advantage of your NMSF and hopefully NMF status - and line up a financially rewarding safety - which will get you out of state and take the strain off. That way you can apply heavy like you plan to - without having to worry what if I don’t get in? Tulsa is a fine school btw. although I do think Bama (yes, too big) can likely go deeper for Physics and with 5 years of free school and housing + $4K per year if you get NMF, well - it’s pretty awesome.
Either way, hopefully those type schools are just in case…but free is pretty nice!!
Good luck.
Here’s Every College That Offers 100% Financial Aid (prepscholar.com)
National Merit Scholars – Afford (ua.edu)