Chance me for W&M ED1

In-state, male
4.26 weighted GPA, rigorous curriculum
1410 SAT
Okay-good ECs with a little leadership
Likely good recommendations
Good essays (writing is one of my strengths and I put a lot of effort into them)
Looking at Naviance for my Northern Virginia high school I’m pretty close to the average accepted student–a few points higher on SAT, a tenth of a point lower from average GPA. The data points seem mixed between accepted and wait-listed.

Only real potential edge I see compared to the data: 1) I’m applying early decision and 2) I’m male.
What does your gut tell you–is it enough?

I think you application looks very strong, especially considering that you applying ED as a male and instate. I think you have a very good chance of getting in.