Chance me - t20 CS colleges

first 2 are core academic teachers (one was last year, another was last year + this year)
third is outside reference but also my neighbor so although we haven’t had a formal convo in a bit we still talk

i mean yolo is just dropping school entirely, so this is more realistic than you think

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Glad you chose additional schools - that are also heavy reaches.

If you want to go to college, then make sure to apply to colleges you will get into.

It’s almost as if you don’t want to go to college, so you’re only applying to schools that are highly likely a no.

So you have less than average stats at the average of schools like a UCLA - which lucky for you are test blind - so if their acceptance rates is 17%, where are you getting 17% from?

It’s CS - my nephew is doing it with a poli sci degree from Arizona - and making $165K + bonus.

If you want to study it, study it. If you don’t want to go to college, just tell your parents now and save the effort…because with your list, that’s unfortunately where you are likely headed…IMHO.

i never liked school, and really my plan to get into the top colleges is different than academics. im more of an independent learner (as in i learn by doing) and so for me id much rather spend the time gaining real experience and doing things in the field rather than take notes for four years

the list i have here isn’t the full list btw, theres around 15-16 i havent included (i am applying to cmu)

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3.78 uc gpa i believe, i’ve calculated all my probabilities and i have like a 64% chance of one acceptance

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You’re balancing out your super reachy list by including… CMU, and GT?

Did you apply to any of the other public schools that are actually in the “top 20 CS schools” list?

And that’s a lot of schools on your list for someone who doesn’t really want to go to college.

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well im planning to RD everything so i havent applied to anything besides the UCs

i mean ill go to college if i get in, but if not i’d rather be prepared for whatever my next plans are

Which UCs have you applied to?

Please understand each application is not an independent variable which is why you see some seemingly qualified candidates get into multiple rejective schools while others get shut out.

If you have a poor LOR, generic essay, other red flag, etc it lowers your probability across all applications. One rejection actually foreshadows potential further rejections at super elites as the pool quality is similar.

I am not handicapping your “chances” or diminishing them just telling you that you can’t simply assume the posted percentages apply to your application in a calculable or predictable way.

Lastly while it is impossible to measure or predict precisely, the greater the number of applications (beyond a certain ill defined number) the worse your chances as the time constraints at a certain point result in “generic” applications. Stated differently you don’t get a free lunch of incremental probability by sending a crappy application to more schools.

Good luck but I would consider some of the informed and well intended advice you have received.

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Are you applying to Merced to get that probability?

Most kids apply to a safety - hopefully a near, just about 100% chance of acceptance.

I don’t understand how you got your 64% at those schools - but - I’d say, how will you fill in the gap for the other 36%?

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You probably should check your list for how easy it is to get accepted to CS applying RD. I’m not familiar with the policies at all these schools, but many accept a high number in the early rounds.

A recommendation from your neighbor regardless of his stature…is unlikely to sway the adcoms.

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Below a 4.0 capped weighted UC GPA makes CS highly unlikely for the majority of the UC’s.

This chart shows the UC admit rates based on the capped weighted UC GPA and not major specific. Competitive majors such as CS will have lower admit rates as noted in my original post. Merced and Riverside would be the most likely overall.

Campus 4.20+ 3.80-4.19 3.40-3.79 3.00-3.39
Berkeley 30% 11% 2% 1%
Davis 85% 55% 23% 10%
Irvine 60% 31% 14% 1%
Los Angeles 29% 6% 1% 0%
Merced 97% 98% 96% 89%
Riverside 97% 92% 62% 23%
San Diego 72% 25% 2% 0%
Santa Barbara 73% 28% 4% 1%
Santa Cruz 91% 81% 46% 9%

Based on the following, probably most UCs other than UCM or UCR are reaches for CS (and even UCR may be a high match for CS). UCSC may be a more realistic reach for CS.


Recalculate your HS GPA with GPA Calculator for the University of California – RogerHub . Use the weighted capped version for the table below.

Fall 2021 admission rates by campus and HS GPA range from Freshman fall admissions summary | University of California :

Campus 4.20+ 3.80-4.19 3.40-3.79 3.00-3.39
Berkeley 30% 11% 2% 1%
Davis 85% 55% 23% 10%
Irvine 60% 31% 14% 1%
Los Angeles 29% 6% 1% 0%
Merced 97% 98% 96% 89%
Riverside 97% 92% 62% 23%
San Diego 75% 35% 5% 1%
Santa Barbara 73% 28% 4% 1%
Santa Cruz 91% 81% 46% 9%

These are for the whole campus. Different divisions or majors may have different levels selectivity (usually, engineering and computer science majors are more selective).

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ucsc, ucsd, ucb, ucla

What if he was involved with my extracurriculars (eg. scoutmaster of Boy Scout troop that i did 200+ service hours in and held the highest leadership position)? Since one of the main ‘spikes’ in my ECs is community service, I feel like that holds some weight at least

So at your GPA UCSC has a 46% chance and that’s the school, not the major.

The other parts are subjective.

Update: i added some more ‘reasonable’ schools

my current list is something like this:

usc, caltech, harvard, stanford, mit, princeton, scu, cornell, purdue, cmu, upenn, northwestern/northeastern, uiuc, unw, ucla, ucsc, ucsd, ucb, cal poly

thx for help everyone

What is UNW?

Community service is important but for all the UC’s, the most important factors are GPA, HS course rigor and the Personal Insight essays. Each campus uses the same 13 areas of criteria in their application review however, each campus weighs these areas differently (actual weighting not disclosed).

https://admission.universityofcalifornia.edu/how-to-apply/applying-as-a-freshman/how-applications-are-reviewed.html

I have been a poster on CC for 10+ years and especially in the last few years, CS has become increasingly competitive. This last admission cycle, I have seen many UC capped weighted 4.0+ applicants that were shut out of the UC’s for CS. Unless there are extenuating circumstances that has affected your grades, a 3.78 is not going to be competitive for the UC’s listed. I would go back and add UC Riverside and Merced along with some Cal States.

Which Cal Poly? SLO? CS admit rate is around 9% for 2022.