Chance to UC Santa Barbara, UC Riverside, and UC Merced?

UC GPA: 3.14
ACT Comp: 20
SAT I: 1450 (CR: 470 M: 530 W: 450) Essay: 8
AP Classes: AP Government, AP Macro-Economics & AP Environmental Science
I have 100+ hrs of community service + Volunteering.
I have a job; work at a senior citizen home.
I think my essay is compelling.

These are the 3 UCs I’m still waiting for a decision + Cal State Fullerton.

I think you will get accepted to uc m, but rejected by the two other schools.

Your UC GPA and test scores are below the averages. If you have a good essay, UCM is possible. UCR/UCSB are Reach schools.