Chances at Princeton/Columbia/Duke?

I’m a rising senior in Illinois and would like to know my chances at some of the following schools. I go to a large, pretty competitive high school.

Chances at Princeton, Columbia, Duke, MIT, Carnegie Mellon, Georgia Tech, UC Berkeley

I’m an asian male and plan to major in Mechanical Engineering or Physics
UW GPA: 3.97
Weighted GPA: 4.69
Rank: N/A at my high school
PSAT: 1510
SAT: 1590 - 800 R&W, 790 Math; 20 Writing
SAT II: Math 2 and Physics this fall, probably in the 760-800 range
ACT: 36 - 36 on all subsections
APs: Euro - 5; Physics - 5; Bio - predicted 5; APUSH - predicted 5; AP English Lang - predicted 4; AP Micro - predicted 5

I got As in all of my classes except for a B+ in precalculus 2nd semester junior year
I plan on taking AP Calc BC, AP Physics C, AP Lang, and AP Gov Comparative senior year

Awards:

  • Ambassador Award (school’s highest award, but at least 30 others get this every year)
  • Departmental Awards in Biology, Chemistry, Physics, and Social Studies
  • Gold Honor Roll
  • WYSE/TEAMS Nationals Qualifier, Top 3 in State
  • Community Service Merit Award

ECs (pretty weak):

  • Physics Club 9-12
  • Debate Team 11-12
  • Youth and Government 11-12
  • Rotary Club 10-12
  • NHS 11-12
  • Fundraising for local charities 9-12
  • Community Service activities 9-12, >70 hours last year
  • Religious Organization involved in community service/education 9-12

Summer:

  • Community college computer science and robotics courses 9-11
  • Material Science/Applied Physics research internship this summer

I appreciate any and all feedback/advice!

Princeton, MIT and Columbia are reaches for all unhooked applicants in the RD round (or, it is foolish to presume they are not…).

Duke is a reach for most and is probably a reach or a low reach for you.

CMU’s Mellon College of Science (Physics) and the Engineering school admit rates are both around 15%. Your stats are a good bit above average but you are unhooked, so – probably a low reach, maybe a reach.

GIT and Berkeley’s selectivity will depend somewhat on your location. Is either in your home state? Are both OOS? If OOS I think they’re low reaches, maaaaaybe high matches. They’ll be more stats-focused than the generally-more-holistic private schools, and your stats are top-notch. If you are in-state for one, that helps.

None of these approaches safety status. If you haven’t already, I strongly suggest finding a couple true matches and at least one safety. Many schools excel in Physics and Engineering. If you can afford Georgia Tech and/or Berkeley OOS, you can afford Purdue, Minnesota, Texas A&M, among other state schools that are great in Physics and Engineering but not quite as selective as Berkeley or GIT OOS. On the private side, consider Lehigh, Case Western and the U of Rochester.

Finally, your own state flagship (if not already…) should be considered.

You are a competitive applicant. Your stats and ECs are good. Write amazing essays and you could get accepted to any of these schools