Chances changed?

Applying to Virginia Tech as a freshman for 2016. I am ending my first semester with a D in AP Calculus AB. Previously, I had a 98% chance at getting into VT on Parchment but I know this D with change that. I have an 1870 SAT score and attended my regional governors school for math and science. I have never ended with a C and a handful of B’s - in a math or AP class respectively. I am also not from Northern Virginia. Will my chances be ruined?

bump