Chances for USCD, UCLA, UCB, Harvey Mudd, Stanford

Context: White male, go to private boarding school in northeast. Transferred there this past year after 2 years at public high school.

SAT: 1570

PSAT: 1510

GPA: UW 3.92 W ~4.65

APs: 5 BC (sophomore year), 5 Lang, 5 French, 5 Physics Mech, 4 APUSH

Senior year course load:
AP Chemistry
AP Literature
Post-AP Graph Theory
AP Physics E&M
AP Psychology
Honors Philosophy Seminar
Orchestra

ECs:
Varsity soccer freshman, sophomore, and junior year
Varsity tennis sophomore year
Varsity indoor and outdoor track junior year, will be varsity again this year
Will be varsity cross country senior year
Honor Council Representative
Boarding Prefect/RA
Modern Language Fellow
FBLA Sophomore year
DECA junior & senior year; was 1 point off nationals at states this year for DECA
Robotics Club; placed in a couple of categories at our regional competition
STEM Club fresh & soph year
Chess Club: not much on this one. We competed against our rival school and amongst ourselves a lot, I got good fast.
I spend a ton of time doing origami, both folding existing diagrams and creating my own.

Awards: Nothing. I’m going to be a national merit semifinalist and as of now I’m an AP Scholar with distinction, but not much else.

Summers: Coding camp at MIT and general studies camp in Quebec City, AoPS classes sophomore year, and a ■■■■ ton of reading, summer assignments, and college preparation this summer.

I’m ideally looking to major in physics but that could completely change by the time I’m done with the courses I’m taking senior year.

My current top 5 are UCSD, UCLA, UCB, Harvey Mudd, & Stanford. I would say Harvey Mudd is probably my top choice of these. I’m trying to find some sort of safety school. UCSD can probably be considered very safe for me right now but anything could happen. UCLA and UCB are mat

UCSD is a safety school for no one especially if you are out of state. Can you pay full fees at $65K/year to attend the UC’s if admitted? Little to no financial aid for OOS students. For merit, you you have a chance at Regents but that award varies from $2000/year at UCLA/UCSD to $6000/year at UCSB. If the UC’s are affordable, then I would add UCSB and apply to the College of Creative Studies (CCS) if Physics is still your intended major. Outstanding physics program with renowned professors.

https://ccs.ucsb.edu

Overall you look like a competitive applicant but realize UCB, UCLA, Harvey Mudd and Stanford are all Reach schools. UCSD is probably a Match school but definitely not a safety.

Do you have any more Match schools and Safeties on your list?

I’m curious, what odds would you place reach/match/safety at? Based on the detailed list of previous applicants from my school to these schools, I would be the first person even remotely (100+) within my score range to be rejected by UCSD in years. Similarly, UCLA would be at least 50/50, and UCB would be right around or just under 50/50. Not enough stats on Mudd to say my odds would be good, and obviously Stanford is a high reach for anybody.

Is UCSD affordable at $65K/year since OOS applicants get little to no FA? A safety needs to be affordable , so if you cannot pay full fees it is not a safety. You are an extremely competitive applicant but as an OOS applicant to the UC’s, you will be held to a higher standard.
What is your UC GPA capped weighted and fully weighted? https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

You have much better odds than most of the competitive applicants applying to the schools but with low acceptance rates and the huge number of applicants, there is no solid guarantee. I would be surprised if you are not accepted but stranger things have happened. You still need a few backup schools just in case.

Be sure you really knock the Mudd essays out of the park — showing fit is critical. If you can afford to not compare FA offers and the net price calculator looks affordable, consider applying ED to Mudd. You have the basic qualifications, so it becomes a question of fit and a numbers game given a lot of other applicants with apps that look like yours.

After what happened with UCI last year with the large numbers of oversubscribed admitted students, I would suspect that a school like UCSD would use a waitlist as yield protection for high test score applicants who doesn’t show much demonstrated interest in the school. So I wouldn’t necessarily count on UCSD as a safety, since we did see a lot of high test score applicants get waitlisted and ultimately rejected. This goes for UCI as well.

Definitely agree that UCB and UCLA are good match schools. Harvey Mudd is probably in between a match and a reach. Stanford is a reach, as it is for everyone. I would find one more safety, like UCI or something like that.

As far as UCSD, goes, please add to consideration the size of the Physics department. While you might meet criteria for admission to the university, the number of admits for Physics majors appears to be very small.