So much is hard to predict this coming year. At these expensive and hypercompetitive schools, 20%+ of this year’s entering class has deferred and will be starting next year; it’s unknown how much this will impact the available space for new applicants. Test scores will be de-emphasized and so inevitably grades and class rank will carry more weight.
Reach schools like these are always a long shot. If you make the first cut, then being URM definitely helps. But, these schools attract the top URM applicants in the country; many of them have no trouble attracting enough highly-qualified URM applicants to assemble a majority-nonwhite class.
Re: American - 1) it very heavily favors ED applicants and dislikes being treated as a safety, so it may not be as safe as it seems, admissions-wise… and 2) does it really look okay NPC-wise, given that it does not meet full need?
Agreed, you have strong EC’s and will likely write a strong essay. You should take your shot at your favorite super-reaches. I even think it relatively unlikely that you’d get shut out if you went with this list; it’s just more risky than I’d be comfortable with. It’s lacking in full-need-met match schools - ones that are excellent schools but not the ones that get to cherry-pick all of the tippy-top URM applicants. The trick is to find the sweet spot - not schools where diversity is so lacking as to negatively affect the quality of your experience, but ones that have to work a bit assemble a diverse class.
Hopefully UMD is a good safety, and if that’s looking like a sure bet, then maybe you don’t need a ton of other matches. But a couple more in the mid-range wouldn’t hurt.
How about Macalester? It meets full need, has an urban setting and a fairly diverse student body, and has strength in both of your areas of academic interest, but the median GPA isn’t 4.0+ like most of your schools, and the acceptance rate is around 40%. Better yet, they have an Early Action application cycle, so hopefully you could have a non-binding acceptance in your pocket before the holidays.
The Claremont Colleges have terrific linguistics and poli sci. Maybe a little more suburban than you like, but there’s access to LA. Pomona would be as big a reach as your other schools, but Scripps, Pitzer, and CMC could all be great options too. On the east coast, Bryn Mawr & Haverford could be worth a look - good commuter-rail access to the city of Philadelphia, and cross-registration not only between the two schools but also at Swarthmore and UPenn.
URochester could be another to look at. Very sold in your areas of interest, great semi-open curriculum that would give you tons of flexibility to pursue your interests, as the courses you’d need for ling+ poli sci would inherently cover the distribution of humanities + social sciences + STEM that you’d need.
I hear you that your school counselor is “useless,” but you would do well to put some effort into helping him/her to craft your counselor recommendation. Make sure that (s)he understands the circumstances that caused your grades to take a hit, and addresses those in your counselor letter - this validation of extenuating circumstances is what colleges need to hear, even more so than your explaining it yourself. Also make sure that (s)he is going to vouch that you took the most rigorous courseload possible at your school (which seems certain, but it’s a box you need to be sure he/she is checking). Often counselors will work from what you give them, so “manage upward” and cultivate the quality of what they’re able to say about you. Refer them to other faculty/staff who know you well, to support the info you’re providing.
Lastly, if you really want to end up at a super-elite school, consider whether that REA application to Harvard (which confers no real advantage and is quite a long shot) is worth giving up ED at other schools on your list where ED makes a big difference. Your chances at Duke or UPenn would be far better in the ED cycle. In your situation, I think I would give ED at one of these two schools very strong consideration.
Lastly, are you recruitable for D3? If so, fill out the inquiry forms on the athletic websites at JHU and Chicago, as well as any other D3’s you might consider adding (Macalester, 5C’s, Haverford/Bryn Mawr, Rochester, etc… maybe Tufts?). This could give you an admissions boost at these schools beyond just discussing your athletics in your application. (When my daughter and toured UChicago, there was a group of track athletes on our tour, and the coach was rolling out the red carpet in a big way.)